FXUS66 KPDT 210511 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1011 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns today for winds and RHs *Red Flag Warnings Issued* 2. Dry and warm conditions will persist through Thursday *Heat Advisory Issued* 3. Pattern shift Thursday will bring cooler temperatures and mountain rain && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows some cloud coverage over the region this afternoon. These will begin to tapper off through the day leaving the region mostly under clear skies. Temperatures today will be in the mid 80s to low 90s in the Columbia Basin and norther Blue foothills with 80-90% confidence while the remainder of the region will be in the low to mid 80s with 70s in some of the higher locations such as Cle Elum, Tollgate and Meacham. Overnight lows will be a bit on the warmer side with the vast majority of the area seeing low in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds today will also be breezy as models show an upper level shortwave making its way across the region. West winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph (70-90% probabilities) will occur across the foothills of the northern and southern Blues, through the Gorge as well as the Basin. Winds in the Kittitas Valley and Yakima Valley will be 20-30 mph sustained with gusts to near 45 mph. Due to the windy conditions in that area, a Wind Advisory has been issued for 3 PM today through midnight. Models show the upper level ridge to remain in place through Thursday. With it remaining in place, models and ensembles show temperatures to steadily increase through the week. The hottest days will be Monday through Wednesday with HeatRisk becoming a 2 of 4 each day. There is an isolated pocket of major HeatRisk (3 of 4) through the WA & OR Columbia River Gorge for Monday and Tuesday with ensembles showing there to be a 70-90% probability of 97 degrees or higher so a Heat Advisory has been issued for that location. As for the Basin, Yakima/Kittitas Valley/central OR and the foothills of the northern and southern Blues, those areas will be in the moderate HeatRisk (2 of 4) while the higher elevations will remain in the minor (1 of 4) category. Overnight lows Monday into Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s across the moderate HeatRisk regions with overnight lows through the Gorge being in the mid 60s (70-80% confidence). Not much reprieve through the overnight hours. Lastly, by Wednesday night into Thursday morning, models show an upper level system moving into the region from the northwest. Clusters show some variance between the models with mostly amplitude and timing. Regardless, models show the system to bring with it mountain rain and cooler temperatures. Rain amounts will be low with only 20-25% of the NBM raw ensembles showing 0.01 inches of rain Thursday before becoming widespread and only 10-15% of the raw ensembles showing 0.01 inches across the region Friday. Thursday NBM raw ensembles show 80-90% probabilities of temperatures above 80 degrees decreasing to 60-80% probabilities of temperatures above 70 degrees Friday.&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds will be breezy across all TAF sites through the period before winds decrease below 10 kts after 07Z. Otherwise, winds will be 12- 20 sustained with gusts as high as 22-30 kts possible. Confidence in the winds is moderate to high between 60-80% probabilities. CIGs will remain SCT/FEW250 through the late morning before breaking away to SKC. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... VFR flight category is expected at all terminals overnight as a dry boundary layer removes any risk for obscuration or ceilings. Breezy winds weakening and becoming less than 12 knots out of the west or northwest for the balance of the overnight and much of the day on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warnings issued for Yakima Valley (WA690), Columbia Basin of OR & WA and eastern Columbia River Gorge of WA (OR691/WA691) and the mountains of central OR (OR700). RFW is for west winds 10-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph with minimum relative humidity's as low as 8%. This puts these areas in critical fire weather and any ignition will have the ability to grow rapidly. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 50 84 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 56 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 54 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 54 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 54 87 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 51 84 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 41 83 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 46 81 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 44 84 45 89 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 55 88 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024. Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for WAZ026. OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...71 FIRE WEATHER...90