FXUS66 KMFR 210552

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

1052 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026



...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...



.AVIATION...21/06Z TAFs...VFR prevails across the area this evening. 

Overnight into the early morning, onshore flow is likely to produce 

MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in marine fog and low stratus 

along the coast and into the coastal valleys, including at North 

Bend. Lower flight conditions may also make it into the Umpqua 

Basin, potentially all the way to Roseburg, by sunrise. Conditions 

should clear to VFR through the morning, with VFR expected into 

Sunday evening. Beginning around 04Z Sunday evening, IFR/LIFR 

stratus and fog is expected to return to the coast, except VFR is 

likely to persist overnight from Cape Blanco to Gold Beach.



&&



.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, June 20, 2026...North winds 

increase this evening and continue to strengthen Sunday through 

Monday evening. The result will be strong northerly winds and very 

steep seas south of Cape Blanco while steep seas remain across the 

outer portion of the northern waters. There may be isolated areas of 

gale force gusts Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for areas 

south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely to 

continue through mid-week. Conditions are likely to briefly improve 

Thursday through Friday morning.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026/



DISCUSSION...SPC CAM paintballs currently show thunderstorms 

developing in Modoc and Siskiyou counties as well as in southern 

Lake County this afternoon. Radar imagery is starting to match up 

with that forecast, with the first cells developing in southern Lake 

County. Thunderstorm development is supported by weak upper air 

instability and ~500 J/Kg CAPE values, neither of which indicates 

chances of severe activity. Any isolated activity that develops this 

afternoon may continue into the evening but would ease into the 

nighttime.



An upper ridge looks to be in control for Sunday through Tuesday, 

bringing a warming trend across the area. On Monday and Tuesday, 

coastal cities are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. West side 

valleys look to be in the mid 90s to low 100s, with high 80s to low 

90s to the east. In between, higher elevations of the Cascades have 

high 60s to mid 70s in the forecast. For inland valleys and low-

lying areas west of the Cascades, a Heat Advisory has been issued 

for Monday afternoon through Tuesday night to highlight the hazards 

that these temperatures present to those who are sensitive to heat 

or without adequate cooling or hydration. East side valleys and 

basins may see periods of Advisory-level conditions, so similar 

awareness is advised even if the criteria for a product was not 

constantly met.



With the ridge moving eastward and flattening midweek and beyond, a 

cooling trend is forecast into next weekend. A dry front looks to 

pass over the area Wednesday, which would bring elevated winds over 

higher terrain and east of the Cascades. Upper flow with a slight 

southwest orientation may support a stray thunderstorm or two east 

of the Cascades on Wednesday afternoon/evening, but this seems like 

a slight possibility at best in the current forecast. Long-term 

guidance generally agrees on a second front reaching the coast 

between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. This front may bring 

some light precipitation, although there's disagreement on if that 

rainfall will be limited to the coast and Cascades or if it will 

fall across the west side.



Disagreement continues into next weekend. In GFS imagery, zonal to 

slightly northwest flow would limit additional precipitation and keep 

temperatures near or just below seasonal norms. The ECMWF 

deterministic outcome brings a low presure system down over the area, 

which would bring additional light rainfall across the area on 

Saturday and Sunday. ECMWF meteograms show good confidence in the 

low pressure outcome, while the GFS is more divided in its 

expectations of weekend rainfall. -TAD



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 

     ORZ023>026. 



CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 

     CAZ080>082. 



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Sunday 

     for PZZ356-370-376. 



     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for 

     PZZ356-376. 



&&



$$