FXUS65 KVEF 211023

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

323 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Temperatures will continue to climb heading into the work week, 

  with afternoon highs peaking Tuesday through Thursday.



* Slight chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late

  week as monsoonal moisture creeps northward.



&&





.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.



Breezy southwesterly winds will continue today and Monday, but with 

lighter speeds than observed Friday and Saturday. Expect afternoon 

gusts generally between 10 and 20 mph, with greater speeds in the 

higher elevation. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to rise 

across the Desert Southwest as an area of high pressure over 

northern Mexico continues to build. Temperatures will peak Tuesday 

through Thursday, with afternoon highs 6 to 8 degrees above seasonal 

normals. Expect widespread Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2 of 4), with 

pockets of Major Heat Risk in the lower desert valleys including 

Death Valley, the Las Vegas Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. 

This level of heat affects anyone spending time outdoors without 

adequate hydration and without frequent breaks in the shade and/or 

air conditioning.



Ensemble means continue to show the aforementioned ridge of high 

pressure shifting slightly eastward midweek. This eastward shift 

will allow a south-southwesterly flow to guide monsoonal moisture up 

the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert. The amount of 

moisture is highly dependent on the exact location of the center of 

the high, as there remains some uncertainty regarding how far east 

it shifts. Regardless, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means show 

between 0.75 and 1.00 inches of PWAT climbing into San Bernardino, 

Clark, and Mohave counties Wednesday and Thursday. Other than a weak 

vorticity maxima and afternoon heating, there is not much in the way 

of instability, so best chances (10-20%) of isolated showers and 

thunderstorms exist over the higher terrain, where there will be 

assistance from orographic lift. Forecast GFS soundings show 

persistent low level dry air on Wednesday and Thursday, with around 

1800-2000 J/kg of DCAPE, implying that dry lightning and gusty winds 

will be the primary hazards with thunderstorms that form. A trough 

pushing into the Pacific Northwest late-week will bring dry air and 

gusty winds along with it, returning elevated fire danger to the 

region Friday and Saturday.

&&





.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Chance 

of 10+ knots remains below 20% through 21z, increasing to 60% around 

00z. The increase in probability coincides with the expected shift 

to more south-southwest winds, thus southeast winds should largely 

remain below 10 knots. Southwest winds persist through the night 

while gradually weakening. Temperatures to exceed 100F between 20z 

and 03z under clear skies.



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Southerly to westerly 

breezes expected again today with gusts generally 15-25 knots in the 

afternoon. Winds weaken after sunset except in the KDAG area where 

they remain elevated into the overnight hours. Mostly clear skies 

with wildfire smoke lingering in Lincoln County.

&&





.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.

&&





$$



DISCUSSION...Soulat

AVIATION...Woods



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