FXUS65 KTWC 210906

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

206 AM MST Sun Jun 21 2026



.SYNOPSIS...A dry forecast is in place into the middle of next 

week. Temperatures begin to rise today becoming several degrees

above normal next week resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk.

Winds will also be breezy each afternoon especially in Graham 

and Greenlee Counties.



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure is in place over the Southwest,

currently centered over northern Sonora and Chihuahua. Over the

next couple of days it's expected to drift a little further 

north and east becoming centered over southern New Mexico. This 

will lead to a warming trend that starts today through the end

of the work week. High temperatures today will be a couple 

degrees above normal, then 4-8 degrees above normal during the 

work week. The Tucson metro has around an 85 percent chance each

day Monday-Friday to see highs above 105 degrees and 20-40 

percent chance to see 110 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. 

Beginning Tuesday and continuing into Thursday there will be 

areas of Major HeatRisk in the Tucson metro and the Gila River 

Valley with moderate HeatRisk elsewhere. Next weekend ensembles 

show a fairly anomalous low moving into the Pacific Northwest, 

which will push the ridge further south and likely lead to 

temperatures closer to normal. Winds will be gusty out of the 

west/northwest each afternoon during the work week due to 

daytime momentum transfer with the strongest winds expected in 

Graham and Greenlee Counties. 



The center of the ridge setting up to the east will put southern

Arizona under southerly mid-level flow starting Tuesday. This 

will allow some moisture to make its way into the CWA with the 

NBM introducing rain chances (15-30 percent) Thursday and Friday

over Santa Cruz County, southern Cochise County, and the White 

Mountains. This moisture intrusion will likely be short-lived 

as the aforementioned trough moves into the Pacific Northwest 

and changes mid-level winds to dry westerly. 



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z. 

SKC through the early afternoon then high level cirrus clouds 

move in late afternoon and early evening through the end of the

period. Surface winds light and terrain driven this morning 

becoming west to northwest 8-14 kts with gusts 20-25 kts this 

afternoon and early evening. The strongest winds will be at 

KSAD. After 22/03Z winds becoming light and terrain driven 

again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west/northwest through this 

week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph across much 

of the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 

mph in lower elevations of Graham county. Fire weather 

conditions will be elevated most afternoons in the Gila River 

Valley. Minimum relative humidity values will be 5 to 15 percent

in the valleys and 10 to 20 percent in the mountains through 

the middle of the week. No storms in the short term forecast 

with dry conditions expected through mid-week. Moisture moves 

in starting Wednesday raising RH 5-10 percent and will also lead

to a chance for storms over the White Mountains and Santa Cruz 

and Cochise Counties Thursday and Friday afternoons.



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



Hardin



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