FXUS65 KTFX 210730 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 130 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter conditions are expected to continue through Monday with drier and mild conditions on Tuesday. - Warmer temperatures expected mid to late week. - Potential for another storm system arriving this weekend. && .UPDATE... Strong pressure rises in wake of a cold front combined with a barrier jet along and west of the I-15 corridor is helping to support strong and gusty northwest to north winds over portions of the plains early this morning. These winds will gradually subside through sunrise and spread further south and east across the remainder of North Central through Southwest Montana. The forecast has been updated to reflect the these trends. - Moldan && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1201 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A relatively weak disturbance will track along the Canadian border through Sunday maintaining the cooler temperatures and introducing another chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across North-Central Montana. This disturbance slowly makes its way east Monday and Tuesday leaving our area in northwesterly flow during this time. Temperatures will remain near to below average across the region with precipitation chances continuing through Monday evening. Starting Wednesday, upper-level ridging starts to build over the western CONUS allowing for a warm up that is expected to last through the remainder of the work week. There is moderate agreement in another storm system arriving next weekend, although the finer details of how it will track across our region remain unclear at this time. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Sunday/Monday Showers: Generally light precipitation is expected with any shower or thunderstorm that develops. There could be a couple that produce wind gusts in excess of 45 mph but otherwise the threat for strong storms is very low through the start of the week. The highest precipitation chances will be north of a line between Helena and White Sulphur Springs with accumulation amounts generally expected to stay under 0.10". Thursday/Friday Heat: On Thursday there is a greater than 70% chance for highs exceeding 80 degrees across the lower elevations. Additionally, there is a 60% chance for some locations including Great Falls, Fort Benton, Helena, and Bozeman exceeding 85 degrees on Thursday. Friday currently looks to be slightly cooler with a 60% chance for highs exceeding 80 degrees along the lower elevations and a 50% chance for highs exceeding 85 degrees across portions of Chouteau and Fergus county as well as the Gallatin Valley. -thor && .AVIATION... 21/06Z TAF Period Scattered thunderstorms, predominately over Central and North Central Montana, will decrease in coverage through 09-12z Sunday. Primary threat from these showers and storms will be gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise the biggest concern through the 2106/2206 TAF period will be a cold front surging south from Canada late this evening, with this front bringing an abrupt wind shift to the northwest/north, along with gusts of between 30-40kts; especially along and west of the I-15 corridor. VFR conditions will largely prevail through the next 24 hours, but a period of MVFR/low-VFR CIGS are possible between 09-18z Sunday over the plains of Central and North Central Montana in wake of the cold front. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 74 48 67 44 / 10 20 10 0 CTB 69 43 62 40 / 30 50 10 0 HLN 80 50 72 45 / 0 0 20 0 BZN 78 46 74 42 / 0 10 0 0 WYS 70 37 72 35 / 20 40 0 0 DLN 77 45 75 43 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 75 46 68 44 / 0 40 30 10 LWT 71 44 64 41 / 10 50 50 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls