FXUS65 KPUB 210705 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 105 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple hazards in place today. Red Flag conditions over and near the mountains this afternoon, with strong to severe storms over the eastern plains this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms likely over the far eastern plains each day this week, some strong to severe. - Critical fire weather conditions will persist this week over the higher terrain.&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Today... Breezy west flow remains in place aloft as high pressure builds far to our south. For today, mainly hot and dry across most of the area. High temperatures will be a few degrees lower than yesterday, but still hot, with the eastern plains climbing back into the high-90s. Gusty winds will mix down towards the surface across the higher terrain, with critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of the Continental Divide, Upper Arkansas, and the San Luis Valley. RFW in effect 11am-10pm. Later in the day, towards early evening, a shortwave disturbance will pass through the flow aloft to our northeast, sending a weak front south across the plains. As it does, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form, mainly closer to the CO/KS border with a few isolated storms over the Palmer Divide, traveling south and east as the front does. Models differ on the strength and coverage of thunderstorms, mainly due to differences in available moisture and lift. The front itself should provide the necessary lift, along with some low-level wind shear, but moisture may be a bit lacking. Generally, models range with dewpoints ahead of the front, with modest instability of 1000 J/kg or less generally expected during the afternoon. Though more moist air moves in behind the front, the main threat expected from strong to severe storms will be strong outflow winds. However, if any storms manage to stay more isolated and intensify further, large hail will quickly become a concern. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Not much change to the long-term forecast at this time. As high pressure continues to build in from the south, breezy west winds will persist over the mountains and adjacent areas, leading to spotty critical fire weather conditions. Limiting factor there will mainly just be how strong the winds get, but some critical conditions are expected each afternoon. Meanwhile, favorable upslope winds will be in place over the far eastern plains. This will combine with a few disturbances passing overhead throughout the week, meaning that showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon over our far eastern counties. There should be enough moisture for some good instability, and with the added lift from the synoptic pattern and decent wind shear, some strong to severe storms will be possible as well. This pattern will last through most of the week, with models beginning to hint at a more broad trough moving in sometime next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Cold front/convective outflow will move across the Palmer Dvd to COS between 06Z-07Z bringing gusty northerly winds 25-35kts to COS, along with some patchy stratus. Winds diminish through daybreak and become breezy southerly through the day, before another backdoor front brings breezy north to northeast winds to COS between 23Z-01Z. There is a low chance of -shra/-tsra along the Palmer Dvd tomorrow afternoon, but will not include in the taf attm. Cold front/convective outflow moves into across between 07Z-08Z bringing gusty northerly winds 28-38kts to PUB. Winds diminish through daybreak and become breezy southeast through the day, before another backdoor front brings breezy east to northeast winds to PUB between 00Z-02Z. Light winds overnight at ALS, become breezy west to southwest aft 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Still expecting a very active week, fire weather-wise, across the region. Today: Red Flag Warning is in effect, 11am to 10pm, for portions of the Continental Divide, Upper Arkansas, and the San Luis Valley. Breezy west winds will coincide with dry surface conditions through most of the afternoon and evening. Monday Onwards: Dry, warm conditions will remain in place across the higher terrain the rest of the week. Critical conditions will depend on how strong winds are, but generally gusts should keep critical conditions over portions of the higher terrain each afternoon. At this time, no precipitation is expected over the mountains this week. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222>224. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-223- 224. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MW FIRE WEATHER...GARBEROGLIO