FXUS65 KPIH 210633 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1233 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist through this evening - Very dry conditions and breezy Monday with near critical fire conditions - Warmer and mostly dry conditions until next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Enough moisture will linger today for isolated showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds and little rainfall. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph, although one set of ensemble forecasts pushed that chance up to 50% across the Snake Plain. Highest gusts with any "shower" or thunderstorm is pushing 40-45 mph. Elsewhere some pockets of wind OUTSIDE of any showers or storms will hit 15-30 mph at times. Temperatures should be a bit warmer vs. Saturday with warmer valley locations pushing 85. Throughout the upcoming week, the trend is warmer and pretty dry conditions. The Blend of Models has highs for the lower valleys in the 85-95 degree range. That said, we will likely some pockets of high and mid level clouds cross over the state. We cannot rule out this point the potential for virga/light rain, gusty wind, and maybe even a few thunderstorms when this happens. It appears by next weekend we could see another larger low sweeping through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. We should be cooler, breezy, and another chance of appreciable rainfall, depending on the track of that low. There is fairly wide range of temperatures already showing up in the Blend of Models forecast. The coldest end of the range has highs in 55-70 degree range, while the warmer end of range is between 75-85 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Winds have largely died down at BYI, PIH and IDA with main impacts some rain showers at DIJ overnight but ceilings expected to remain VFR. Will have very early showers at IDA and some vicinity at PIH but left out the showers. Generally few to broken mid level clouds Sunday and Sunday evening with mainly winds only up to 10 knots. May see gusts up to 20 knots at PIH after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 We should see linger light showers/virga and isolated thunderstorms through this evening across central and eastern Idaho. The chance of wetting rain is less than 15% EVERYWHERE today, with a 10-50% chance (ensemble model dependent) of outflow gusts over 35 mph. Any real potential will persist over the central mountains (476), the Snake Plain (410), eastern highlands (411), the South Hills/Albion Mountains (427), southeast highlands (413). Thunderstorm potential remains isolated at the moment, meaning we are not looking any potential Red Flag conditions for today. On Monday, a fairly strong dry slots moves across the state. This knocks afternoon humidity down into the single digits and teens for most of the lower elevations. There will be some 15-25% humidity across higher elevations of the central mountains, and along the Montana and Wyoming borders. Gusts of 15-30 mph are possible, with gusts across portions of Zone 425 and across Craters of the Moon pushing 35 mph. The only location where we MIGHT come close to widespread critical fire weather conditions will be across Zone 425 and the far southern end of 410. Later forecast shifts will need to coordinate to see if another round of RED FLAG WARNINGS is needed for Monday. Most of the upcoming week returns to warmer and much drier conditions, at least in terms of afternoon humidity. It does appear we will poor to very poor overnight recovery, especially across portions of 413, 422, and 427 starting tomorrow night. It appears we will see an occasional shot of high and mid level moisture streaming across the state. There is a very low potential (barely 15%) of seeing any rainfall or lightning at all from any of this. We may see another area of low pressure impacting us next week weekend with cooler, breezy, and possibly wet conditions. Stay tuned. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...GK FIRE WEATHER...Keyes