FXUS65 KGJT 210407

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

1007 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warm, dry, and windy conditions highlight the forecast 

  through mid week. 



- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Monday afternoon 

  across much of southwest Colorado. 



- Moisture returns to the region late in the week, but dry 

  antecedent conditions may limit rainfall amounts. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 959 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026



WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE: 



Subtle shortwave troughs in a predominately zonal flow pattern 

aloft will do little to break the region out of it's warm, dry, 

and windy spell. This means critical fire weather conditions 

continues to be our main focus. Sunday's risk will be much more 

localized than what we saw on Saturday due to lighter winds and 

slightly higher (albiet still dry) relative humidity values. 

That risk grows across southwest Colorado on Monday afternoon 

where wind gusts up to 30 mph and single-digit relative 

humidities. As a result, Red Flag Warnings have been issued. 

Additional critical fire weather conditions are likely through 

at least mid week. 



Temperatures are expected to peak around 5-10 degrees above 

normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, including the potential for 

triple-digit highs in the desert valleys of eastern Utah and 

western Colorado.



LOOKING AHEAD: 



There is finally some semblance of moisture returning to the 

region later on in the week. Despite PWATs potentially rising to

150-175% of normal, it will likely take some time to scour out 

the extremely dry air at the surface. Expect adjustments to the 

forecast as the week progresses. Precipitation chances may be 

delayed compared to the arrival of the moisture on Thursday. 



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear

skies. Current gusty southwest to westerly winds will drop off 

at most TAF sites between 02Z and 04Z, becoming typical drainage

winds overnight. Westerly winds will pick up at the mountain

TAF sites again after about 16Z with gusts 20 to 25 kts through

the afternoon.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 959 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Critical fire weather conditions will be more localized on

Sunday before ramping back up with the heat early this week.

Gusty winds and single-digit RH across southwest Colorado on

Monday afternoon has led to us issuing our next round of Red 

Flag Warnings accordingly. Expect additional critical fire

weather conditions through at least mid week. 



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ207-

     290>295. 

UT...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KAA

AVIATION...DB

FIRE WEATHER...TGJT