FXUS65 KFGZ 211108

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

408 AM MST Sun Jun 21 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Overall dry, breezy, and hot conditions are forecast

through Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms returns by

the middle of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...We remain enveloped in a very dry airmass following 

the passage of a shortwave trough. The dry conditions will lead 

to efficient radiational cooling and chilly temperatures along the

high terrain this morning. Localized wind protected areas at high

elevation will dip into the 30s and possibly briefly touch 

freezing. Things will warm quickly once the sun rises, with near-

normal June daytime temperatures expected today. Winds will be 

less breezy than yesterday as the gradient aloft relaxes and flow 

turns more zonal. Forecasted relative humidity this afternoon 

remains very dry in the 4-8% range, however the magnitude of the 

winds comes down enough to keep us below Critical fire weather 

thresholds. Nevertheless, expect Elevated to Near-Critical fire 

weather conditions across northern AZ.



Starting tomorrow, heights begin to increase aloft as high pressure 

builds to our southeast. A gradual warming trend will bring daytime 

temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. An Extreme 

Heat Warning has been issued for the lower elevations of the 

Grand Canyon on Monday and Tuesday where afternoon temperatures 

will reach 102-112F. Heights aloft remain above normal into 

Wednesday, however an expected increase in clouds and 

precipitation chances is a complicating factor in extending the 

warning any longer.



The placement of the high centered to our southeast will allow for 

the return of subtropical moisture into the region. Moisture begins 

streaming into the region by the middle of the week, and the 

ensemble mean PW peaks at 0.70"-0.90" on Wednesday-Thursday. The 

current forecast calls for a 10% chance of showers and 

thunderstorms along the higher terrain on Tuesday, increasing to 

20-40% on Wednesday, peaking at 25-50% across most of northern AZ

on Thursday. By the end of the week, there is a signal that 

another Pacific trough will brush by and sweep out the moisture 

once again. This could bring another period of strong winds and 

low humidity into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION...Sunday 21/12Z through Monday 22/12Z...VFR conditions

expected. Period of light morning HZ/FU possible near KSEZ due to

a local wildfire. Additional HZ/FU impacts possible near KFLG 

after 18Z. W-SW winds 5-15 kts after 18Z, becoming light and 

variable overnight.



OUTLOOK...Monday 22/12Z through Wednesday 24/12Z...Mainly VFR

conditions expected. Periods of HZ/FU possible near KFLG during 

the afternoon, becoming focused over KSEZ overnight due to a local

wildfire. S-W winds 10-20 kts forecast each afternoon, becoming 

light and variable overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Very dry and breezy conditions

will bring areas of elevated fire weather. Winds will generally 

be southwest to west 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Warm 

conditions persist with minimum RH 4-10%.



Tuesday through Thursday...Breezy with gradually increasing moisture 

and continued above normal temperatures. Slight chance (10%) of 

thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Tuesday 

afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase to 20-40% over all of 

northern Arizona for Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest to

west winds 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph each day. Minimum RH 

10-15% on Tuesday, then 15-20% Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM MST Tuesday for 

AZZ006.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Lewandowski

AVIATION...Zanker

FIRE WEATHER...Zanker



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaffFGZ-173878