FXUS65 KBOU 210746

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

146 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Strong to severe storms possible across the far eastern plains

  today. Otherwise, temperatures holding steady with elevated fire

  weather conditions in the high country and some patchy smoke

  aloft from wildfires in Utah.



- Increasing coverage of afternoon thunderstorms early to mid

  week, with continued potential for severe thunderstorms,

  especially in the plains.

 

- Slightly moderated temperatures midweek, with drier and warmer

  weather returning for the weekend.



- Elevated to at times locally critical fire weather conditions

  will persist much of the week in the high country.



&&



.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...

Issued at 105 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Stratus has become relatively widespread across the lower 

elevations in the wake of yesterday's front, though should largely

remain elevated enough to keep any dense fog patchy in nature, 

more prevalent over the higher elevations of the Pawnee 

Grasslands. Cross-sections point to a fairly early mixing of

westerly and southwesterly flow this morning which should help

dissipate lingering stratus shortly after sunrise. Mostly elevated

smoke will also be present at times today, stemming from ongoing

wildfire activity in western Utah.



Today's convective forecast remains on track, with a modest

dryline progged to settle in our eastern plains and allow for an

axis of greater instability this afternoon/evening across our

easternmost tier of counties. Shear doesn't appear to be overly

impressive, but a few pockets up to around 40 kts look to be

present in the plains. Wind and hail will be the primary severe

weather threats in the plains today. Farther west, drier air will

be in place through ~500mb under weakly subsident flow, hindering

instability and precipitation chances. Some virga and isolated

showers will be more likely for the urban corridor, along with a

few gusty outflows. Temperatures look to hold steady under the

subsident pattern. In the mountains, lingering breezy and dry

conditions will sustain elevated to near-critical fire weather

conditions.



Another weak shortwave arrives Monday, with the dryline

experiencing a westward nudge and PW values climbing to between

0.80-1.00" for most of the plains. Despite a slight cooldown,

elevated dewpoints will promote increased instability and thus

greater thunderstorm coverage for the lower elevations, including

the I-25 corridor. Still, the higher potential for severe

convection will remain over the rural plains. In the high country,

gusty west winds resulting from strengthening zonal flow will lead

to near-critical and potentially critical fire weather conditions

for some locations.



Moist easterly flow will remain anchored in place Tuesday into

Wednesday, maintaining at least scattered afternoon showers and

thunderstorms for most of the area as well as cooler temperatures

despite some height rises aloft. Precipitation chances for the

urban corridor look to be the highest during this period, and may

extend into Thursday depending on how quickly the pattern evolves.



A warming and drying trend is favored as we head towards the

weekend, with ensemble means indicating healthy potential for

temperatures climbing into the mid/upper 90's for the lower

elevations by Saturday. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...

Issued at 1208 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Low stratus clouds with bases 008-020 are present across much of

the Denver metro area with SCT-BKN coverage. The duration of these

is rather uncertain and hinges on the consistency and strength of

any drainage flow that develops. Winds currently are retaining a

NE and N component but speeds are weakening and a gradual

counter-clockwise rotation to SW drainage flow is expected between

08-11Z. Forecast is for low clouds to largely dissipate past 12Z,

with 14Z being the latest possible return to VFR conditions.



This afternoon, winds should be out of the NW to N and gusty with

some gusts up to 25 kts looking likely for most of the afternoon.

There is a very low chance of showers/thunderstorms tomorrow 

afternoon, but are currently expected to stay south and east of 

the terminals.



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BRQ

AVIATION...BRQ