FXUS65 KABQ 210519 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1119 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Exceptionally dry conditions will prevail on Sunday. Humidity values will fall below 10 percent for several hours for most locations. - Isolated showers and storms may produce gusty and erratic winds in far eastern New Mexico Monday and Tuesday. - High temperatures in the 90s to low 100s through lower elevation areas Sunday will increase the risk of heat related illnesses for sensitive individuals. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The ridge over the southern rockies is in the process of being broken down, with a drier airmass pushing into the Four Corners region out ahead of a Great Basin trough. A slight uptick in winds will accompany this transition today, with southwest to west breezes prevailing areawide. Moisture will be scoured out of most of the area, but there could be just enough across the northeast corner of the state this afternoon before the dry airmass eventually takes over. A few high-based showers could develop further south too in the east-central plains, although nearly no hi-res models are bearish on the development of any convection at all. It will be an extraordinarily dry night across central and western NM, with overnight humidities struggling to rise above the 15% mark. This will help it to cool off well, offering some relief from the persistent heat. Speaking of heat, Sunday will bring about an increase in temps, with Roswell forecast to hit 106F. Therefore, a Heat Advisory was issued for the Chaves County Plains. It will once again be another sunny June day with UV index levels maxing out the scale. Sunscreen is a must if planning to spend time outdoors. A shortwave trough exiting into the High Plains on Sunday will send a backdoor front southward, reaching the northeast corner of New Mexico during the late evening. There is a low chance that showers initiate along this boundary, although rain chances will mostly be limited to Union County. The somewhat unimpressive boundary (in terms of temp/moisture gradient) will push up against the central mountain chain Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The influx of moisture across eastern NM on Monday should be enough to generate at least isolated convection, although the building monsoon high to the south will attempt to put a cap on convection. This high pressure will continue to intensify mid-week, reaching a strength of around ~598 dam, which is around 2 standard deviations above climatology. Temperatures will tick up a few more degrees as a result, creating localized Major HeatRisk along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. Mid-level moisture will continue creeping northward underneath the high mid-week as well, with increasing shower and storm chances on Wednesday. Since sfc dewpoints will still be in the 30-40F range across the western half of the state, dry storms will be a threat, with gusty winds more likely than wetting rainfall. This changes late week as the ridge weakens and PWATs tick upwards. Westerly flow with embedded shortwaves will favor the development of strong storms in eastern NM each day Wednesday through Friday where chances of wetting precipitation will be higher. The monsoon ridge retreats again over the weekend in response to strengthening westerly flow that will once again dry out the region. This relatively dry and hot pattern looks to persist into the early portion of the following week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 VFR prevails with breezy winds lessening thru the overnight period. LLWS will be a concern for some eastern terminals, but not close enough to include at KROW. Breezy to at times windy westerlies return areawide Sunday afternoon alongside mostly SKC skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Hot, dry, and windy conditions today will create several hours of critical fire weather conditions in the western half of the state where fuels are very dry and ERCs are generally above the 90th percentile. A very dry airmass will continue pushing into New Mexico from the west overnight so humidity recoveries tonight will be very poor, with portions of west-central NM struggling to rise above 10%. Sunday will be even drier than today, with single digit humidities areawide and values even dropping below 5% in a few areas. Fortunately, winds will be lighter, helping to mitigate fire spread risks. Low rain chances return to northeast NM on Monday, increasing in coverage Tuesday. Sub-tropical moisture spreading northward from northern Mexico will begin to create high-based showers and storms across western and central areas mid next week. Dry storms with strong and erratic outflow winds may start new fires given the dry boundary layer and still low sfc dewpoints (30-40F). Storms across eastern NM have the potential to be stronger and are more likely to produce wetting rainfall. Storm coverage looks to peak on Thursday, then trends lower Friday into the weekend. The downtick in storm coverage will coincide with increasing west winds, likely creating at least localized critical fire weather conditions across western NM next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 94 51 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 89 43 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 88 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 90 43 92 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 87 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 47 91 44 93 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 88 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 54 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 47 94 47 96 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 53 96 53 97 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 82 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 55 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 86 51 85 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 42 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 35 80 37 79 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 47 89 48 88 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 51 87 51 84 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 56 95 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 93 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 99 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 98 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 100 58 99 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 97 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 59 98 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 60 99 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 62 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 97 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 102 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 56 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 93 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 56 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 57 93 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 88 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 52 90 52 79 / 0 0 20 20 Raton........................... 50 94 54 85 / 0 0 10 20 Springer........................ 52 94 56 86 / 0 0 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 91 55 84 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 62 95 59 83 / 0 0 20 20 Roy............................. 56 93 58 83 / 0 0 5 10 Conchas......................... 64 101 63 91 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 97 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 103 64 91 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 67 101 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 68 103 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 101 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 68 106 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 99 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 60 95 61 93 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...24