FXUS64 KSHV 210626 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 126 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - A quiet overnight with a change of seasons under fair skies, but morning low clouds will greet the warm and breezy day. - Best chances for rainfall on Father's Day will come up from the Gulf with a enhanced sea breeze under another weakness aloft. - Another cool front will sink down across the plains and middle MS River valley bringing focus for additional showers and thunderstorms early to midweek as temperatures warm up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Fair skies this early morning with more morning stratus expected to develop in the wee hours and into the mid morning. The will arrive and or form right around the Summer solstice at 3:24 a.m. this morning, kicking off our summer with a continued wet pattern. Unlike the last few days with NW flow and weak upper level disturbances, today's push will arrive from the Gulf. We will see SW surface winds a little more breezy than lately and highs topping off near average around the 90 degree mark. The lingering humidity in the air will lift out the wet soils and boost our heat index into the lower 100s range this afternoon. There is a weak upper level low modeled to slide out of the Gulf moving toward NE LA. So the with this, the sea breeze will get a running start early in the day with some activity lifting in our area mid to late morning, and continuing across I-20 by early afternoon. This convection will lift farther north into OK/AR and dissipate late in the afternoon or early evening. Then we will look back to the northwest for some arriving overnight convection to clip our northern most counties. The SPC has a General risk for nearly all of us today with some gusty winds to 40 mph most likely from the strongest storms. They do have the Marginal risk down across McCurtain Co primarily for the overnight, and then their day 2 shifts that Marginal line well south of I-20 for Monday as we will reset the NW flow pattern for the new week one last time. This next front will keep to our north, but do well to bottle up some of the available moisture. Meanwhile, our heights aloft will slowly climb over with a 1020mb surface high expected to develop over the northern Gulf coast. So expect the storm track to shift a little farther northward than here lately as S/SW winds prevail in our neck of the woods. The WPC has us under Marginal due to our soaked soils, most of the QPF off the Gulf will be generally less than an inch. However, as that NW flow resets with another weak frontal boundary sinking our way, and they do have the Slight risk draped over McCurtain over into central AR for today, then edging that Slight risk for excessive rainfall back down to the AR/LA state line and over northern most portions of NE TX by Monday, and then more Marginal risk thereafter, until we dry out. So the good news is that the rain will briefly continue into summer. As these cool fronts fail to fully arrive like the last few, we will hang on to the muggy S/SW winds and slowly dry out the ground a little more each day late week, with soil temps climbing into the 80s. All this as a 591dam upper ridge over the eastern Gulf by next weekend. This upper ridging will nose up into the middle MS River Valley, and will continue to keep us drying with high temperatures set to climb through the mid 90s and even see some widespread upper 90s in the picture. No doubt we will have more Heat Advisory material looming as our dew points will remain elevated until the soil drys too. Morning lows will trend upward as well with mid to upper 70s becoming invogue for us. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 While VFR conditions will start the 21/06Z TAF period, low MVFR cigs are expected to develop through the overnight hours across E TX/Wrn LA, and spread NNE into Srn AR/NE LA through daybreak Sunday. Only slow improvement in cigs is expected by mid to late morning, although an early morning strong seabreeze is expected to quickly shift N into Lower E TX/N LA between 15-18Z. Thus, scattered convection is expected to affect the E TX/N LA terminals between 15- 20Z, which may shift NNE into Srn AR and affect the TXK/ELD terminals between 18-22Z. This convection will result in continued MVFR cigs, reduced vsbys, and gusty winds to 35kts, before diminishing by mid to late afternoon. In its wake, VFR conditions will return with a scattered cu field accompanied by some residual low AC/cirrus cigs, which will gradually thin through late afternoon. Only some residual cu (with some thinning cirrus over NCntrl/NE LA) should remain during the evening, although low MVFR/IFR cigs should again redevelop/shift N into the region after 06Z Monday. S winds 3-7kts overnight will increase to 10-14kts after 15Z, with gusts to 25kts possible except gustier in/near the convection. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Spotter activation should not be needed on this Father's Day, but may be needed early in the new work week for a day or two. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 77 93 78 / 40 10 20 20 MLU 91 77 94 77 / 60 10 30 40 DEQ 90 75 88 73 / 20 50 70 80 TXK 93 77 92 76 / 20 30 50 60 ELD 91 76 92 75 / 40 20 40 60 TYR 91 78 94 78 / 30 10 10 10 GGG 90 77 93 77 / 40 10 10 20 LFK 91 77 95 77 / 70 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...26