FXUS64 KOHX 210525 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1225 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - High rain and storm chances overnight Sunday into Monday. There is a low severe weather threat with strong winds being the primary concern. The tornado threat is very low. - Seasonably warm and humid weather with on and off chances for showers and storms next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Warm overnight lows tonight with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There is potential for patchy fog overnight, especially over the Southwest. Sunday will bring quite warm temperatures through the afternoon, with temperatures potentially reaching the low 90s. There is a very low chance, around 10% or less, for scattered showers through Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave approaches from the Plains. This shortwave, accompanied by a surface low, will begin tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night, pushing a cold front east towards Middle TN. To the west, convection will be ongoing and an MCS will develop over IL and push east through KY and IN, likely sticking to our north. Between 12-3 AM, scattered thunderstorms associated with the cold front will begin to move into northwestern Middle TN. A 30-40 knot 850 mb low-level jet will develop Sunday night ahead of the front, pushing 0-3 km helicity values to 150-250. Elevated CAPE will persist through the night with values ranging between 1000-2000 j/kg, along with bulk shear values between 20-30 knots. Acknowledging the forcing present, there is a low chance for strong storms, particularly over northwestern Middle TN. Forecast soundings do show a weak cap, however this cap could be surpassed given sufficient forcing. Mid-level lapse rates will be between 6 to 6.5 C/km, so not great, but will still be worth monitoring for potential severe storms. Given ample shear with the low-level jet in place, damaging winds will be the primary concern, however since we will see increasing low-level helicity values, there will also be a low tornado threat. Through Monday, this cold front will continue to push through Middle TN. Lapse rates will fall near 5.5 C/km, largely limiting any severe potential Monday afternoon. With that, CAPE values will persist between 1000-2000 j/kg and bulk shear will remain between 20-30 knots. This will result in showers throughout the morning, with a low chance for strong storms in the afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, however there will be a low chance for marginal severe hail. With regards to a flooding threat, widespread flooding is not expected, however localized flooding will be possible with heavier downpours as PWAT values surge beyond 2", near the climatological max for this time of year. Temperatures will remain very warm, with highs in the mid 80s and dew points pushing into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 A stationary boundary will setup near the TN/AL border Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing scattered low rain chances around 20% through the beginning of the week, especially over our southern counties. Mid-level flow aloft will become more zonal with weak disturbances rippling through as the week progresses. This will keep low to medium rain chances in the forecast for most of this week with warm and muggy conditions as afternoon highs warm into the mid to upper 80s. A more organized trough will move through Thursday, bringing a higher, more widespread chance of rain and storms with chances between 35-50%. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Calm winds and clear skies tonight, but will have to watch for light fog development at SRB and CSV. After daybreak, expect southerly winds to pick up with gusts up to 20kts after 18Z. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower but remain VFR, except late at CKV and BNA as a line of storms approaches bringing IFR VIS. Best time looks to be about 04Z at CKV, and 06Z at BNA for the extended portion of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 74 84 67 / 10 60 90 50 Clarksville 90 73 83 65 / 10 80 90 30 Crossville 85 68 79 63 / 10 50 90 70 Columbia 90 72 84 66 / 10 70 90 60 Cookeville 87 70 80 64 / 0 60 90 70 Jamestown 87 68 80 62 / 0 50 90 70 Lawrenceburg 87 71 83 66 / 10 70 90 70 Murfreesboro 91 73 85 66 / 10 60 90 60 Waverly 89 71 82 64 / 10 70 90 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....05