FXUS64 KMRX 210645

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

245 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



- One last dry day today with warmer temperatures. Humidity will

  be increasing as well.



- Showers and storms are likely late tonight, with the potential

  for strong/severe storms tomorrow afternoon/evening.



- Daily rain chances continue through the coming week, with

  temperatures near or slightly below normal.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



The Summer Solstice occurs later this morning. Today is also 

Father's Day and anyone with outdoor plans will be pleased to hear 

the dry weather may continue to hold onto today as well. Rain 

chances were previously thought to start creeping up from the south 

later in the day. Expect upper 80s in the valley with stickier air 

beginning to return with developing S/SW flow. 



Later today, a system that will eventually cross into the Ohio 

Valley, will approach and potentially impact our area during the 

overnight hours tonight. This will begin the first of multiple 

rounds of showers and storms through late tomorrow into early 

Tuesday. However, some of 00z CAMs struggle to bring the decaying 

system into the area late tonight. We could get overnight 

showers/storms or we could not. Depending on what happens will most 

likely impact what could happen later in the day with the actual 

front entering the area. Day-time showers and storms may begin 

around mid to late morning if the earlier precipitation does not pan 

out. Consensus hones in on numerous to widespread showers and 

storms, with the potential for strong to severe from early afternoon 

into the evening. Support will be there for at least marginally 

severe storms with forecast CAPE now nearing 2000 J/Kg and up and 

deep shear in the neighborhood of 20-35 KT. Main threat will be 

damaging winds, however, it will be gusty at times outside of any 

storms during the day tomorrow for parts of the area. PWs 

approaching, possibly exceeding 2 inches, will bring increased flash 

flood potential as well.



Precipitation expected to wind down late tomorrow night into 

Tuesday. Residual precip may hang around if the front does get hung 

up a bit, like models are trying to show. As for the rest of the 

week, periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms will 

persist until the end of the forecast period next weekend under 

broad troughing and NW/W flow. Temperatures, as a result, will hold 

steady near or just below normal. Gradual warming into next weekend. 

Ensembles, as well as CPC, indicate above normal temperatures beyond 

the forecast period. Potential high amplitude ridge being hinted at 

by models. For humidity and dew points, a trend downward heading 

into Wednesday, with a return to higher values towards the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



VFR conditions and light winds 10kts or less will prevail through

the period. Wind direction will be from the south-southwest this

afternoon. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  73  86  70 /  10  40  90  70 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  72  84  68 /   0  20  90 100 

Oak Ridge, TN                       90  71  84  67 /   0  30  90  80 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  66  85  65 /   0  10 100  90 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KS

AVIATION...KRS