FXUS64 KMEG 210526 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather late Sunday night into Monday morning with a continued Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) through the daytime Monday. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the main concerns. - Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances will continue for the foreseeable future, with high temperatures remaining in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 A warm and humid day will impact the Mid-South on Sunday with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is potential for a few areas within the Mississippi Delta to briefly reach heat indices of 105. However, confidence in this occurring is low due to the potential for isolated thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Greater rain chances will manifest in the late evening hours as a shortwave trough traverses Missouri, kicking off an MCS northwest of the forecast area. The latest suite of CAMs is in relatively good agreement with storms moving into northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel just before midnight Monday. At this time, forecast soundings depict an elevated mixed layer and decreasing surface instability. These two features will discourage upscale storm growth, meaning convection should weaken as it approaches the Mississippi River. A few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out as this activity pushes into the region. Thus, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms is in place. Additional severe weather chances will manifest on Monday as the early morning activity continues south. Daytime heating, along with the presence of a moist air mass, will produce increased instability by the afternoon over portions of north Mississippi. Any storms that linger into the afternoon will have the potential to strengthen, posing mainly a damaging wind threat. The Mid-South will sit in northwest flow aloft through midweek with several embedded disturbances impacting the region. Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms will occur at this time with heavy rainfall becoming an increasing concern. Beyond Wednesday, the synoptic flow will slightly change as a more defined shortwave moves out of the central Plains. Additional precipitation chances will persist into Friday. Ensemble guidance places around 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall falling now through the end of the week. However, anomalously high precipitable water values will promote efficient rainfall rates each day. This may yield localized flooding threats depending on where the greatest precipitation axis develops. We will continue to monitor these trends in future forecast updates. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 VFR conditions and gusty south winds associated with a tight pressure gradient are expected to prevail through at least 00Z Monday. As a surface low and attendant cold front approach late Sunday night, expect convection to pick up in coverage from northwest to southeast overnight into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, along with MinRH values over 40%, will negate fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS