FXUS64 KLZK 210547 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 -Isolated showers and t'storm in SE AR Saturday morning -Relatively pleasant day Saturday before feels like temps increase Sunday. -Next round of strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 A sfc wrmfrnt is pushing north out of the I-20 corridor early Sat morning. With it very humid air is being drawn north with observed dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s in Nrthrn LA. As this airmass propagates further north throughout the day a few isolated to scattered showers and maybe a stray t'storm can develop in the SE quadrant of AR. PWATs near 2 inches could support a heavier downpour or two, but relatively dry soil conditions should promote quick absorption of any rainfall. Sat afternoon into evening 2 separate MCSs will develop and congeal into 1 in NE and KS respectively before starting a ESE jog roughly to our northern border through the day Sunday. Sunday humid conditions will return for all of the state, apparent temps exceeding 100 in the Arkansas River Valley will be possible under this soupy airmass. The approaching MCS will increase PoP chances in Nrthrn AR for a pop-up t'storm ahead of the mainline Sun afternoon. Recent CAM runs have the first push of the system more across Cntrl MO while laying an outflow boundary along its sthrn flank. A further H500 shortwave moving along the jet will spark development along this outflow boundary Sun evening. SBCAPE >2000J/kg would provide plenty of instability along the boundary for storms. Near parallel storm motion and 0-3km shear vectors could promote a conditional QLCS type threat. However, the fly in the ointment with this system is the relatively saturated temp profile. Lack of evaporative cooling will inhibit any rear inflow jet development and a more traditional squall line. The more likely storm mode will be a cold pool driven line due to the saturated profiles, PWATS nearing 2in, and meager lapse rates. All of these variables additionally hint at a very heavy rain event. 6-hr QPF estimates range between 2-3" with locally higher amounts in Nrthn AR within this line. To start next week temps should be slightly cooler due to the line of storms on Sun into Mon. Highs should be near normal in the 80s across the state. These will slowly creep up as well as Apparent Temps throughout the week. Throughout next week the H500 jet remains to our north. This will allow several shortwaves to approach the area. Combined with the very moist environment remaining in place until late next week will help drive chances for rain and afternoon t'storms for most of the week. Relief from the humidity will not be until closer to next weekend as a SFC High sets up over the great plains and turns our mean flow nrthly, bringing in some slightly drier and cooler continental air. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 VFR conds are expected to prevail overnight. MVFR conds are possible around 10z at KHOT, KADF, and KLLQ through late morning due to low stratus overspreading from the S. CIGs should lift by midday back to VFR category. Midday/early afternoon SHRA/TSRA will be possible over Srn terminals but opted to omit at the moment. Towards the end of the TAF period, SHRA/TSRA will be possible over far Nrn AR but also omitted for the time being. Winds on Sun should be S/SWrly between 10-20 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 75 87 68 / 20 70 70 50 Camden AR 92 76 91 73 / 20 30 40 70 Harrison AR 88 72 81 65 / 20 90 60 50Hot Springs AR 92 76 89 72 / 20 60 60 80 Little Rock AR 92 76 89 72 / 10 70 70 70 Monticello AR 91 76 91 74 / 20 30 50 60 Mount Ida AR 90 75 87 72 / 10 70 60 80 Mountain Home AR 88 71 82 66 / 20 80 50 50 Newport AR 91 76 88 70 / 10 70 80 50 Pine Bluff AR 92 76 90 73 / 10 50 60 60 Russellville AR 93 76 88 72 / 10 80 60 70 Searcy AR 93 75 88 70 / 10 70 70 60 Stuttgart AR 92 77 89 73 / 10 70 70 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>033-039-043>046-121-122-130-138-230-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...78 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...70