FXUS64 KLCH 211121 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 621 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding for lower Southeast Texas and far Southwest Louisiana and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for most of the area through the early afternoon. - Rain chances will start to decrease this evening and will range from 0 to 20 percent the week ahead. - Temperatures will start to increase this week with highs in the low to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 A stream of Gulf fed moisture filters across across Southeast TX and Southwest LA today. The coastal trough driving daily convective showers and storms is showing signs of diminishing toward the east. After a brief morning round of scattered activity, warming in the lowest 1km AGL will create a cap decreasing the potential for further convection. Highs will top out in the low 90s for most locations while retaining that muggy high humidity. The column begins to dry out further on Monday locally and likely warm enough to inhibit convection under some weak subsidence. Resulting less cloud cover will hedge high temperatures higher in the lower 90s. Messaging will be pivoting away from flood concerns, thankfully, to seasonal heat hazards or cautioning at the least. Given the amount of antecedent rainfall, surfaces will likely carry high RH during the afternoons amid the upcoming work week. This will border many interior locations near heat advisory criteria so outdoor activities should be padded with rest, cooling off, and hydration. We continue the warm / relatively drier pattern Tuesday where mid 90s are likely across central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas. Winds out of the south will acquire more southwest components as surface high pressure moving across the SECONUS and broadening over the central Gulf waters. These hot and dry conditions with light southerly winds will stay in the forecast through Friday night. Some of the guidance hints at an upper level trough developing by the weekend, but this solution is weak and not well represented in blended guidance or ensembles. That said, outside of a quick seabreeze or garden variety pop up, rain chances stay around 10% or less for the extended range. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Showers and storms are ongoing early this morning and will persist through around the middle of the day, with the heaviest rain expected to fall near/at BPT/LCH. This convection will continue to cause reductions in VIS as well as a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next few hours. Convection will begin to taper off by early afternoon, if not sooner, giving way to VFR conditions. Winds will be breezy out of the south today, with occasional gusts possible through the midday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The pressure gradient will gradually tighten into Sunday night which is increase winds. Sunday night into Monday there could be a brief period where winds reach SCA criteria over a portion of the gulf waters. Winds will decrease again by Tuesday with a light to moderate onshore flow anticipated through the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 No fire weather concerns through the period. That said, with respect to rainfall, the pattern is showing signs of a much drier forecast this coming week with chances of rain under 15% through Friday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...17