FXUS64 KBMX 210325 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1025 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026 - Active Pattern: A wet, unsettled pattern will persist through the week, resulting in periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. - Heat: Hot and humid conditions will continue early next week, with heat indices reaching approximately 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026 A few showers are lingering across the region in the wake of this afternoon's convection. Central Alabama experienced some efficient rainfall producing showers and thunderstorms earlier in the day. Several of these storms produced 3-4 inches of rain across the CWA. The most significant rainfall occurred in northwest Jefferson county where radar estimates show over 7" of rainfall. Latest satellite trends reveal clearing skies across our northern areas. Clear skies, light winds, and saturated soils will set the stage for a foggy morning across Central Alabama. Our wet pattern continues through the week. A boundary draped across the region will lift north through the day Sunday as a southerly flow continues to usher deep tropical moisture inland. Another H5 shortwave will pass overhead through the day tomorrow which will trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance keeps this upper support closer to the coast which would keep the heavier rainfall to the south of those areas that were impacted today. Therefore, we opted to not continue the Flood Watch to account for Sunday's activity. As we head into the work week, upper level ridging takes control out west, leaving us with northwest flow aloft. Several H5 shortwaves look to rotate through this northwest flow regime which will keep elevated rain chances in the forecast. Another cold front heads our way by mid week, eventually stalling across the state. This will lead to increased chances for showers and storms as low level convergence is maximized along the boundary. Details for the exact placement will be worked out over the coming days. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along with heat indices around 100 degrees early next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026 VFR conditions have returned in the wake of this afternoon's convection. Continued with a mention of VCSH for all sites this evening as some isolated activity is expected in the wake of the earlier storms. Brief MVFR ceilings are likely with any passing shower over the next few hours. Confidence is low in this activity impacting any particular site so have left any mention out of the TAFs. Ceilings will begin to fall after 06Z with IFR expected for much of the night, eventually improving through the mid morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms return during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED has been added for this set. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 88 73 88 / 10 20 30 70 Anniston 68 87 73 87 / 10 20 20 60 Birmingham 69 87 73 88 / 10 30 20 70 Tuscaloosa 70 86 74 89 / 10 50 30 60 Calera 69 88 73 91 / 10 40 20 50 Auburn 70 85 73 88 / 10 50 20 20 Montgomery 70 85 73 90 / 20 80 20 10 Troy 69 85 73 90 /20 80 10 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo