FXUS64 KAMA 210503

AFDAMA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

1203 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening

  into the morning hours of Monday, mainly for the northern 

  combined Panhandles for large hail and damaging winds.



- Heat Advisory is in effect for south to central Texas panhandle 

  today with very hot temperatures approaching 106 degrees.



- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week,

  varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight

  hours.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Monday night)

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



The panhandles is still inbetween to larger scale weather system 

with a high pressure system to the south and a large scale weather 

system to the north. 



Today the high pressure system will exert more influence across

the panhandles for the morning through afternoon timeframe. This

will be most pronounced with the high pressure spreading the low

level thermal ridge across the panhandles. This will cause the

temperatures to jump signficantly for this afternoon with

widespread 100s for highs. The hottest areas such as the Canadian

River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon are still favoring breaching

past 105. This brings the risk of heat illness to these areas so

frequent hydration and breaks is recommended for any who are

outdoors. Since this heat is impacting a larger area than earlier

forecast the Heat Advisory has been expanded across a larger

portion of the southern and central Texas panhandle. Then towards

this evening the high pressure yields with the large scale 

weather system becoming the more dominant feature. This will allow

for a cold front to pass north to south across the panhandles. 

This will start during the evening and finishing during the early 

morning of Monday. The passage of the front will bring cooler

conditions along with an extensive bank of low clouds. This would

normally herald more stable conditions however that will not be

the case. The environment along and behind the front is showing 

between 2000 to 3000 J/Kg with 30 to 50 kt of shear. This unstable

environment will most likely be elevated with the unstable 

conditions above the stable surface layer. This will allow for a 

low to medium for thunderstorms to develop behind the front. The 

environment is such that strong to severe thunderstorms have a low

chance of forming. If these occur then the main threat will be 

large hail and damaging winds. These thunderstorms will move 

slowly southward during the evening through morning hours of 

Monday before they dissipate by the later morning hours as forcing

weakens. The elevated unstable environment will remain across the

panhandles for the remainder of Monday. This means that when 

forcing returns with the passage of a trough during the afternoon 

and evening further high based thunderstorms may form over the 

panhandles. These will retain the same threat as the morning 

storms in that there is a low chance for severe storms with large 

hail and damaging winds. Some forcing seems likely to remain 

through into the overnight hours so this round of thunderstorms 

can also last into the overnight as well. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through next Saturday)

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



The southern planes has a high chance of having high pressure to the 

southwest and lower pressure to the northeast setting up a northwest 

flow through much of next work week. This pattern is favorable to 

bring in multiple weather system that will lead to daily potential 

for rain showers and thunderstorms. The dynamics are such that there 

will be the potential for stronger to severe thunderstorms with the 

more potent weather systems. 



This pattern is showing signs that it will break down come next 

weekend which can shift the weather to be less active across the 

panhandles. How long this downtrend will last is questionable as 

there is increasing confidence for a large scale weather system to 

develop in the western U.S. next weekend as well.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



VFR conditions at all terminals all the way to this evening. This 

morning will have breezy south winds at all terminals that will then 

become weak going into the late morning. A cold front the passes 

North to South across the panhandles this evening brining breezy 

northeast winds. Along and behind the front a bank of low clouds can 

bring mainly MVFR ceilings across the panhandles. There is a low 

to medium chance for thunderstorms along and behind the front. 

These have a low chance of becoming severe with large hail and 

damaging winds being the main threat. These thunderstorms are 

likely to continue into the overnight hours into Monday morning as

they slowly move southward. 



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ317.



OK...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...98

LONG TERM....98

AVIATION...98