FXUS64 KAMA 210310

AFDAMA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



...New UPDATE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon

  and evening, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles for

  large hail and damaging winds.



- Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon on Sunday with

  very hot temperatures approaching 106 degrees.



- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week,

  varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight

  hours.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



A mature MCS in southwestern Kansas is moving currently

southeastward. There is a low chance for the western edge of this

MCS to push across the northeastern corner of the combined OK and

TX panhandles. If this occurs then strong to severe thunderstorms

capable of producing damaging winds will pass through this area.

Still there is the greater chance the increasingly stable

environment will prevent this from occurring with the MCS staying

to the east of the panhandles in OK proper. Regardless given the 

threat for severe thunderstorms the northeastern panhandles is 

included within a severe thunderstorm watch. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Sunday night)

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Latest 18Z obs across the Panhandles shows temperatures well into

the 80s with a few areas in the 90s. Along the Caprock, we are

also seeing a ~45 deg sfc convergence boundary of higher Td 

values advecting in from the SE TX Panhandle. This is causing a

alto Cu field to develop along this convergence boundary. Quite

the minuscule vertical growth of these clouds as lapse rates are

quite anemic, especially further south you are in the Texas

Panhandle. However, latest 18Z RAOB data from AMA shows sfc

instability just south of 3000 J/kg, along with sfc-6 km shear of

only 5 kts. We will watch the aforementioned sfc boundary 

closely, although effective shear is limited, plenty of moisture 

is in the region, and reaching convective temperature, any notable

lift from boundary and/or local terrain could still potentially 

produce a thunderstorm for the southern TX Panhandle (10-20% 

chance). Further north into the northern Panhandles, displaced 

from the main H500 centered well to the SW, along with better mid 

level lapse rates and effective shear greater than 30 kts, higher 

confidence for severe storm potential exists in this area. H500 

westerlies will steer terrain off the NM/CO high terrain. Southern

extent of established complex should reach the OK Panhandle, as 

of the latest 16-18Z HRRR/ARW/NMM hi-res data. Good directional 

shear may keep cells discrete as they reach the OK Panhandle, with

large hail and damaging winds the main threat, with H850 LLJ 

increasing in this vicinity through 03Z this evening. Any 

thunderstorms activity should quickly move east into NW Oklahoma 

through 04-05Z.



The influence of the main H500 anticyclonic feature over the

southwest CONUS will result in strong H850 WAA into the Panhandle

for Sunday, where many locations in the TX Panhandle will top out

in the 100-105 range for highs on Sunday. A Heat Advisory is in 

effect for Palo Duro Canyon with max temperatures as high as 106.

A cold front will move south through the Panhandles later Sunday 

afternoon into the evening. Areas east of the dryline in the far 

eastern Panhandles will have the best chance of seeing a 

thunderstorm as the cold front moves south, where some storms 

could be severe. Will watch surface trends closely throughout the 

day to further narrow down the areas with hugest potential. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday through next Friday)

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



As the main H500 high pressure system slowly shifts west, with its

center over the NM/AZ border with Mexico, established WNW/NW H500

flow should steer mountain convection towards the Panhandles. The

northern and eastern Panhandles will be most favored for 

thunderstorm potential each evening into the overnight hours. 

Depending on mid level perturbations within the flow, some days 

could feature strong to severe storms as well. High temperatures 

will remain above average throughout the coming week. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Thunderstorm chances have fallen off for the KGUY terminal this

evening. Mentions of vicinity thunder have been removed due to 

our lower confidence this evening. Instead, strong, southerly 

winds will prevail at all sites for the rest of the day. Later 

this morning, low level wind shear is expected at KGUY due to an 

increasing low level jet over the area. LLWS should subside just 

before sunrise, and winds will shift to northerly flow once the 

cold front moves through. By Sunday afternoon, surface winds 

should remain breezy and northerly through the rest of the period.



Rangel



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ317,

 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 from 10 PM to 2 AM for TXZ005.



OK...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 from 10 PM to 2 AM for OKZ003.





&&



$$



SHORT TERM...98

LONG TERM....29

AVIATION...55