FXUS63 KSGF 210700 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk this morning through tonight across the entire area with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Primary risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk for a few tornadoes. - A Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall risk this morning through Monday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Monday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized corridors up to 5 inches. - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances through next week, with the highest chances (30-60%) on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 This Morning: Radar and satellite capture the extent of a mature thunderstorm complex tracking through south central KS early this morning. This mature MCS has a well established cold pool with several severe wind gust reports of 60 to 70 mph in its wake. A brief mesoanalysis suggests this complex to follow an eastward trajectory into portions of southeast KS and west central/southwest MO, entering the area by 4 to 5 am this morning. As it progresses eastward towards our area, it will work to overcome some CIN, following along an instability gradient aligned east- southeast into southeast KS. CAMs have struggled to capture the full extent of this mature complex this morning, with mesoscale trends supporting it's maintenance into at least the western counties of our coverage area. For this reason, SPC has coordinated a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for this area along and west of Interstate 49 early this morning. Primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The mesovortex/brief tornado potential becomes much less favorable into our area, with 0-3km line normal shear 20 knots or less to the northeast. Overall, the general trend towards sunrise should be a weakening trending with the complex into our area, as it eventually pulls a bit more northward as a warm front surges into northern MO. Localized heavy rainfall may accompany the passage of the morning complex, with a few instances of flash flooding possible in areas where training occurs. This Afternoon-Tonight: CAMs suggest the morning complex weakens and/or decays as it sweeps through the area. The timing of this complex's passage will play an important role in the mesoscale setup this afternoon. Expect temperatures to push towards the middle to upper 80s by early afternoon as strong low-level warm air advection overspreads the area. Gusty southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph can be expected today with dewpoints reaching into the lower 70s. A quicker dissipation or passage of the morning complex would support better atmosphere recovery by early afternoon, while a slower solution may inhibit convection initiation to later this evening along existing outflow boundaries. Current trends would suggest a scenario to play out somewhere in the middle, with convection redeveloping by mid to late afternoon. The environment will favor supercell development initially, with deep layer shear around 30 to 40 knots in the vicinity of ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500+ J/kg). Steep mid-level lapse rates in this setup suggests initial supercells to pose a large hail threat, up to golf balls. Furthermore, sufficient DCAPE would support damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. As for the low-level environment, it supports a few tornadoes, particularly along boundaries in the area this afternoon. Initial supercell storm mode may quickly become clusters and/or segments as coverage increases with a gradual southeast progression through the area. Expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. SPC captures this severe potential with a Slight (2 of 5) severe risk across the entire area today through tonight. As we progress into tonight, a secondary shortwave overspreads the area with the approach of a cold front. This would support further thunderstorm development in a rich moist environment. PWATs upwards of 1.8 to 2.0 inches will support efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per a hour as multiple rounds of thunderstorms track over the same areas. This will further amplify the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through this evening and tonight. A widespread 1 to 3 inches remains in the forecast, with HREF and REFS LPMMs depicting localized corridors of up to 5 inches. Given the setup, WPC has maintained a Moderate (3 of 4) risk for flashing flooding across portions of the area. A Flood Watch is in effect through Monday morning to capture the increasing potential in flash flooding through tonight. This of particular concern given antecedent conditions, with elevated streamflows and saturated soils. It is worth noting, there is still lingering uncertainties on exactly how today/tonight play out, as mesoscale trends will dictate the outcomes of each round of thunderstorms. The eventual cold front is progged to clear through the area into Monday morning, with a lingering severe and flooding potential overnight tonight. Behind the frontal passage, cooler and drier weather overspread the area for remainder of Monday. Highs in the middle to upper 70s/near 80. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Tuesday-Saturday: As we progress into Tuesday and beyond, northwest flow develops with transient shortwaves through the pattern. This will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially into southern MO as a frontal boundary stalls south of the area. While these are not expected to be all day washouts, there is support for scattered shower and thunderstorms each day this week. The highest chances (30-60%) are currently depicted by the NBM on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a bit lower chances (30-50%) Thursday through Saturday. This pattern will be accompanied by cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s. There is still some timing and location differences across the suite of ensemble guidance that will be best captured in future forecast updates. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Increasing middle to high cloud cover will occur overnight into Sunday morning as a storm system in the plains moves towards the Ozarks overnight. Flight conditions be VFR into the morning with increasing potential for showers and storms to move into the region and bring MVFR or low conditions were storms occur. Surface winds will increase during the morning into midday with gusts from 20 to 30mph from the west. Winds may be stronger and erratic where storms move over area terminals. Showers and storms will remain possible into the afternoon and evening on Sunday as another storm system may bring additional activity to the region. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Hatch