FXUS63 KPAH 210809

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

309 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Level 2 of 5 potential for severe weather late this afternoon

  and evening with a complex system moving through. All severe

  hazards are possible. Rain continues through Monday.



- There is a possibility for training storms with this system

  along the boundary. This could lead to flooding potential, so

  a Flood Watch has been issued. See the Flood Watch for more

  details.



- Lake Wind Advisory for this afternoon due to the breezy

  conditions ahead of this system.



- Variable rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday

  afternoon into the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



An upper level shortwave with an associated sfc low pressure system 

that is producing an MCS will track through northern MO into central 

IL today. The current stationary boundary through our area lifts 

north as a warm front by this afternoon leading to WAA today. 

Trailing behind the low is a northeast to southwest oriented cold 

front. The bulk of the MCS activity looks to remain north of the 

area through this afternoon as it tracks along the warm front. The 

tail end of the MCS may scrape our northern most counties

though. Also expecting breezy conditions ahead of this system

today. Sustained winds may be around 15-20 mph with gusts to

around 30 mph. Have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for this

afternoon. 



Later this afternoon...while models disagree on the strength of the 

sfc low as well as the environment ahead of it, daytime 

destabilization looks to produce sufficient CAPE, 30-40 kts of 0-6km 

bulk shear, and elongated hodographs that would support a tornado 

threat and large hail threat with embedded supercells along the 

outflow boundary. This is supported by SPC's 5% CIG 1 hatched 

Tornado potential area in the Day 1 outlook. However, where exactly 

this boundary ends up is still up for debate. There is also the 

potential for training along the boundary and with starkly high 

PWATs around 2", we could see some flooding potential. Therefore 

have issued a Flood Watch for the northern counties (for now) from 

Noon till 7 AM Monday. See the Flood Watch for more details. 



The late afternoon activity above will not be our only concern, in 

fact our main concern may very likely be with the trailing cold 

front. Strong daytime heating will support destabilization across 

the area. Models support around 2,00-2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE over SEMO 

and around 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE elsewhere. There also looks to 

be around 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear that is perpendicular to 

the cold front. This would support more organized discrete cell 

development along the front. All hazard modes may be possible. 

However, there is still an uncomfortable amount of disagreement in 

the models, the CAMs especially. 



A second shortwave aloft rolls through the same area which continues 

our rain chances on Monday, primarily across south and southeast 

portions of the area. Behind the cold front we can expect highs in 

the 80s with drier conditions and dew points in the 60s. Another 

series of shortwaves aloft move through mid-late week. Though there 

is still some model differences, at least a weak (~20%) chance of 

rain looks to return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon and 

Thursday afternoon (~20-35%). Better chances arrive Friday afternoon 

through Saturday (~20-45%).



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1004 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



The pressure gradient will begin to increase Sunday morning, 

with SE to S winds increasing to 10-15 kts by the afternoon 

with gusts over 20 kts. There is the potential for brief MVFR 

cigs at KPAH/KCGI before mainly a VFR cu field prevails across 

all terminals in the afternoon. Isolated convection becomes 

possible after 18z mainly at KMVN. The more widespread risk

holds off until after 22z when a complex of storms will sweep

across the region through 06z Monday. S winds after sunset 

decrease below 10 kts.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening 

     for ILZ075-081-085.

     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday 

     morning for ILZ075>078-080>083.

MO...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening 

     for MOZ100.

IN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon through 

     Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening 

     for KYZ007>009-011-012.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HICKFORD

AVIATION...DW