FXUS63 KMPX 210513

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1213 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few showers possible across southern Minnesota Sunday, then 

  better chance for widespread rain Tuesday. 



- Below normal temperatures continue through next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Other than widespread summertime cu this afternoon, 

temperatures are expected to comfortably remain in the 70s.  

Winds will become light and variable later this evening. An 

upper-level low over eastern Manitoba will continue to move 

southward along a deepening troughing pattern over the Great 

Lakes Region. Surface high pressure locally should suppress most 

development for any precip this afternoon. However, a weak 

instability axis over our western Wisconsin counties is coupled 

with the upper-level jet. Meaning this does warrant a slight 

chance of a few isolated showers this afternoon. Given the weak 

forcing and lack of sufficient moisture, any rain that manages 

to develop should be light and brief. Our attention then shifts 

to southern MN tonight through tomorrow. Latest water vapor 

imagery shows ridging occurring over the intermountain west and 

embedded within this ridge is an area of lower pressure that 

will move into the central CONUS tonight. This system will carry

sufficient moisture to generate widespread showers and storms 

however much of this activity will be well south of MN/WI. With 

deviations in the low's track possible combined with QPF trends 

in EPS Ensemble meteograms, decided to nudge NBM pops up ~10% 

along the I-90 corridor. QPF amounts would be limited to a tenth

of an inch or less. Temperatures tomorrow will reach the 

mid-70s for most with partly sunny skies. 



Another system moves across the northern plains from the

Canadian prairies Tuesday. Better moisture will advect back up 

into the Upper Mississippi River Valley, as a cold front moves 

through Tuesday afternoon. The thermodynamic environment 

continues to advertise mainly a general thunder threat as sfc 

and mid-level lapse rates range between 6-7 deg C/km and MUCAPE 

of 500 J/kg at best. However, will need to keep an eye the 

veering wind profiles as this could serve as a nudge for a 

marginal convective threat Tuesday evening. For the rest of the 

week, temperatures will remain below average in the low to 

mid-70s.



As mentioned in the previous discussion, there are signs of

ridging trying to build back to the Upper Midwest by Friday 

into next weekend. This hints at a potentially more active 

pattern developing, along with temperatures returning closer to 

normal.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Mid and high level clouds will increase overnight into this

morning. VFR expected to continue. Winds will remain light and

mostly easterly.



KMSP...No concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON... VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. 

TUE... Mainly VFR with PM -SHRA. Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S to SW

5-10 kts. 

WED...VFR. Chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Dunleavy

AVIATION...Borghoff