FXUS63 KLSX 210723 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are anticipated across the area this morning through tonight. Some storms may be strong to severe this afternoon/evening with the main threats being tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. - Locally heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding is also expected this morning into tonight. - Seasonably cool conditions are forecast this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 An active period of weather is forecast from early this morning into tonight, including the risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding in some locations. Currently, as of 06z (1am), a large mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) encompasses much of the state of KS, with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms extending northeastward into northern MO. The strongest portion of this activity, which is being maintained by a strong (50+kt) low-level jet, is currently tracking eastward across south-central KS, essentially following the instability gradient that extends eastward into southern MO. All of this activity has been initiated by a mid-level shortwave trough that is traversing the Great Plains, which has also sparked the formation of a lee-side surface cyclone that is positioned to the west of the MCV. As the MCV pushes eastward into central/northeast MO around 12z (7am) this morning, a strong LLJ will continue to provide abundant moisture transport and low-level shear to maintain convection. However, with marginal instability early this morning (<500 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the area, the greatest threat with stronger thunderstorms is expected to be marginally severe wind gusts up to 60mph, which would be favored along any bowing/surging segments that may form. The primary threat is still forecast to be heavy rainfall potentially lead to flash flooding. Forecast soundings indicate that a warm cloud layer >12,000ft will be present, favoring warm rain processes. Also with PWATs near 2", thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall makers, and capable of rainfall rates in the 1-2+"/hr range. The greatest threat for flash flooding this morning appears to be across central/northeast MO and west-central IL as the center of the MCV should be focused in those areas. By the early afternoon, the MCV is forecast to be sliding across east-central MO into western IL. An intensification of thunderstorms is possible as instability increases throughout the day. Also, within the MCV and vicinity of the surface cyclone, low-level shear/SRH becomes enhanced, leading to an increasing threat for tornadoes. With rich moisture and elongated low-level hodographs, storm clusters with embedded supercells and surges with mesovortices will be possible, especially if low/mid-level instability increases. As a result, the greatest threats anticipated this afternoon/evening are tornadoes along with damaging winds. This includes a potential for strong tornadoes if supercells remain relatively organized and sustained across the area. Additionally, an outflow boundary in the wake of the MCV along with the cold front associated with the surface cyclone will serve as localized enhancements of surface convergence. Therefore, with sufficient instability, it is expected that additional thunderstorm development will happen near these features, perhaps somewhere from central-southeast MO in the afternoon. With sufficient deep-layer shear (>30kts), there is the potential for organized development along these boundaries. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible with this convective activity, but remains dependent onthe magnitude of instability that is available. Lastly, the threat for heavy rainfall will continue, with the threat area potentially shifting to southern portions of the area where the better convective coverage is forecast to be in the late afternoon/evening. Also, with the mean flow becoming increasingly parallel to the forecast boundary later tonight, training of thunderstorms may enhance the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Guidance reveals the surface cyclone lifting northeastward tonight, with the cold front clearing to the southeast by tomorrow morning, bringing an end to the threat for severe weather and flash flooding. An additional subtle mid-level shortwave is progged to traverse the area on Monday and may support some lingering post-frontal showers across southern portions of the area early Monday. With low-level CAA taking hold on Monday along with post-frontal stratus, a cooler day is forecast with highs in the 70s across the entire area. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft will take hold over the region Tuesday into the end of the week, resulting in a stretch of largely dry conditions along with seasonably cool temperatures. A mid-level shortwave near the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday may send a cold front our way. This feature would bring our best chances for rain sometime mid-week, with 20-40% chances being revealed by the latest LREF. Generally, highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s look to prevail, which is about 5-10 degrees below climatological normals. This is supported well by the LREF, which has narrow 3-5 degree temperature IQR spread through Friday. By the end of the week, long-range deterministic guidance indicates an additional shortwave aloft moving into the Midwest. Currently, this appears to be the next best chance for more rainfall, sometime from late Friday through next weekend. A signal for a warming trend also appears next weekend, however this is also when LREF temperatures IQR spreads increase to 10 degrees, indicating more variability. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the terminals during the period. At UIN, showers may begin as early as 08Z and are likely between 14-20Z and may linger through 00Z with thunderstorms most likely between 16-20Z. At COU/JEF, one round of showers and thunderstorms is mostly likely between 13-19Z with another chance between 22-24Z. At the St. Louis area terminals, showers and thunderstorms are most likely between 15-19Z with another chance between 22-02Z. Any of the heavier showers and thunderstorms could produce MVFR possible IFR ceilings and visibilities with the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing hail and wind gusts over 35 knots. Winds will turn out of the south this afternoon around 20-25 knots and then veer out of the north tonight with MVFR (possible IFR) ceilings behind the front. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for Franklin MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO. Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday morning for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO- Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO. Flood Watch through this evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO. IL...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for Bond IL-FayetteIL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Montgomery IL. Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday morning for Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Flood Watch through this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX