FXUS63 KLBF 210356 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread thunderstorms are expected across across western to north central Nebraska through Saturday evening. A few storms could be severe, with large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two could be possible. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe with large hail and a brief tornado or two being the primary concerns. - Near-daily thunderstorm chances continue into the week but severe potential remains uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 A warm front has been nudging in from southwest Nebraska, promoting easterly flow and scattered thunderstorm throughout the morning. Later on in the day, a shortwave trough is trekking eastward across the Utah/Idaho border, at the same time, southeasterly low level winds are feeding warm, moist air into the area. As low level clouds and fog continue to burn off through the late afternoon, the region will be primed for the development of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening. The environment is conducive for a persistent threat for clusters of severe storms. Ensembles have a swathe of MUCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg along with sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear of 50 - 60 kts blanketing western and north central Nebraska which would be a conducive environment for the potential of large hail. Models have been a little disagreeable for how far north storms will develop, but show moderate to high agreement for storms developing along and south of I-80, where clustering of storms will move across and become more upscale. Confidence remains lower on how organized storms could be further north where some models have it being widespread where others are nonexistent. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out especially over far southwest Nebraska where low clouds have already started to clear out. Additionally, a threat of localized flooding is developing with PWAT values remaining high and a growing number of models suggesting a swath of 2 - 4" of QPF across central Nebraska through tonight, a flood advisory has been issued for Custer county to highlight this concern. Transitioning to Sunday, strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely across western and into north central Nebraska. Storms look to start out discrete, supercellular in nature. 30 - 40 kts bulk shear combined with ample instability will make the environment conducive for storms having large to very large hail. A tornado or two also remains a possibility, especially when the low level jet strengthens during the early evening through the overnight hours. This is all dependent of the progression and location of the frontal boundary so this will continue to be monitored closely for any changes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Active weather continues to be the tune for much of the week with near-daily thunderstorm chances. Numerous small shortwaves move through Nebraska until an upper level trough moves into the early Friday. As such, while severe weather potential remains uncertain at this time, confidence is increasing that it could be a rainy week regardless. Confidence is moderate to high that localized flooding will be a growing concern for portions of central Nebraska. With soils already being likely saturated from the weekend rains and rain rates possibly being 0.5 to 1 inch per hour, flooding over roadways, low lying areas, and small streams will be a potential threat to keep an eye out to monitor for over the next forecast packages. Other than thunderstorm and flooding concerns, the week looks to remain mild with highs remaining in the mid 70s until next weekend where near normal highs return. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 KLBF- Dense low stratus will remain overhead through tonight and much of tomorrow. Currently, cigs are sitting around 1000-1500 ft. Between 06-09z, we will see a line of storms pass through the area. This will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Reductions in vis/cigs can be expected as this passes, with variable wind gusts upwards to 30 KTs or more in the stronger storms. Cigs may drop as low as 500 ft, with vis between 3-5 SM. After 09z, we will see rain/storm chances decrease until after 18z Sunday. Although, the dense low stratus will remain through much of Sunday, with cigs hovering around 500-1000 ft until 18z, lifting and improving after 18z. After the line of storms moves through, winds will continue to gradually decrease, becoming light and variable by 12z. Winds will become more southerly oriented around 18z Sunday, shifting northerly by 00z Monday as a boundary passes through. Winds will remain about 10-15 KTs through Sunday afternoon. KVTN- Dense low stratus deck will remain overhead through tonight and much of Sunday. Currently we are seeing cigs around 1000 ft or less, which will continue to slowly decrease to around 500 ft. After 06z, there will be chances for scattered showers/storms. Thus, opted to include a PROB30 group until 09z. We will continue to see cigs around 500 ft through much of Sunday morning, with conditions gradually improving after 18z. Another round of isolated-scattered showers/storms will move through after 15z Sunday, which may result in brief cigs <500 ft. Confidence is lower at this time. Thus, opted to message through a PROB30 group. Southeasterly winds around 10 KTs will continue through Sunday morning, becoming more easterly around 10-15 KTs after 18z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRS LONG TERM...MRS AVIATION...Gunkel