FXUS63 KJKL 210512 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 112 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather is expected through the day Sunday. - Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall along with strong wind gust. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did tweak the near term PoPs per the current radar depiction and motion. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure mostly in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. There is a weak cold front settling south into the area with some isolated to scattered convection. Some mid and high clouds are affecting the area - associated with the front. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 80s to low 80s. Meanwhile, amid light west winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the PoPs and thunder chances through the rest of the night in the north. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026 A weak cold front is nearing the Ohio River from the northwest this afternoon. An enhanced cu field has developed along and ahead of the front, but bases are fairly high at 5-6K feet due to a lack of significant moisture return. Dew points just ahead of the front are generally in the lower to mid 60s, and only in the upper 50s and lower 60s over the JKl forecast area. Higher dew points in the 70s are in the Gulf Coast states on the other side of a warm front. Despite the scant moisture, models are developing some sparse convective precip along/ahead of the front early this evening. Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for the northern edge of the forecast area, but if anything occurs, it should dry up during the night. This frontal boundary is forecast to stall over KY on Sunday as it becomes strung out parallel to the zonal upper flow. Models now suggest the boundary will remain dry on Sunday and then fade as it returns north and is overtaken by the aforementioned more southern boundary heading northward as a warm front on Sunday night. This will bring more moist air northward. Advection of this new air mass will increase as the low level pressure gradient tightens with low pressure heading eastward from the plains across the Midwest. Models are bringing MCS activity eastward across the Midwest in association with this on Sunday into Sunday night. It may make it into the JKl forecast area on Sunday night, but there is not good agreement on the evolution of the MCSs, which keeps our local forecast broadbrushed and with rather modest confidence. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 When the long term forecast period opens on Monday evening, there will likely be ongoing showers and thunderstorms across Eastern Kentucky. As discussed above, this lingering convection may initially pose a risk for gusty winds and heavy rainfall. However, the intensity of this activity is poised to decrease after sunset. The loss of diurnal heating and rain-cooled air will combine to reduce instability to below favorable values. This, in turn, should allow rainfall rates to wind down overnight, with only light showers remaining in SE KY by Tuesday morning. The parent cold front looks to finally clear the entire CWA by midday Tuesday. A shortwave trough axis propagates into the southern Appalachians in this time frame and places Eastern Kentucky in a vertically stacked northwesterly flow regime. Orographic lift could yield a few additional sprinkles in the higher southeastern terrain on Tuesday afternoon, but midlevel height rises and the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into the area should prevent any additional impacts. Expect seasonably cool afternoon highs in the upper 70s behind the boundary under clearing skies, which will then favor overnight ridge-valley temperature splits into Wednesday morning. Given the recently wet grounds, expect nocturnal radiation fog to form in at least the conventional river valleys. That fog should burn off as the sun rises on Wednesday, which will be a pleasant summer day under the influence of a postfrontal surface high pressure system. The flow aloft returns to a progressive quasi-zonal flow regime by midweek, with passing shortwave disturbances triggering occasional precipitation chances. As the aforementioned surface high shifts east into Thursday, southwesterly wind components reintroduce warm air advection and moisture return to the column. Highs accordingly return to the mid/upper 80s through the remainder of the period, but increasing model spread regarding the timing and amplitude of those late period impulses makes it difficult to pinpoint precipitation forecast details. PoPs are accordingly relegated to below the 50% mark in the blended forecast guidance used to populate the long term grids, and it may be more reasonable to describe this shower/storm activity with isolated/scattered coverage wording. In other words, expect typical summertime weather conditions towards the end of the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday) ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026 Isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible near KIOB and KSYM through ~07z. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are expected outside of valley fog that is anticipated early this morning - potentially bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. Some uncertainty arises after ~02z Monday as to the magnitude, location, and timing of upstream convection which may move toward or through KIOB and KSYM before the end of the TAF period. This is covered by PROB30 groups for now at those two TAF sites. Light winds overnight will trend southerly to southwesterly at 7 kts or less during the afternoon hours, and will likely continue into the late evening at more exposed locations such as KSME and KIOB. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC