FXUS63 KICT 210530

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Numerous storms expected this evening through Sunday morning

  with severe storms and flooding likely.



- Additional round of storms likely late Sunday afternoon into Sunday

  night mainly in southeast and southern KS with severe storms 

  and flooding possible.



- Below normal high temperatures are forecast for much of next

  week with highs in the 80s and periodic rain chances possible.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



An upper shortwave trough is tracking east across the Central Great 

Basin towards the Central Rockies with lee troughing strengthening 

over much of the Rockies. A surface low is in eastern Colorado with 

a warm front extending across northern Kansas. There are ongoing 

showers and storms in central Nebraska due to 850-700mb warm moist 

advection. This activity is moving southeast making it possible to 

clip our central counties late this afternoon. Another round of 

storms is expected to develop this afternoon in eastern Colorado and 

eastern Wyoming from upslope flow and convergence, resulting in

another round of storms impacting our area. These storms are 

anticipated to move into western Nebraska and western Kansas and

grow upscale as the upper shortwave continues to move into the 

Central Rockies. This round of storms would likely impact 

central KS after about 9 PM. There is still uncertainty with how

far south and east this MCS tracks with some guidance 

suggesting another MCS diving southeast out of Nebraska through 

much of our area in the late overnight hours into Sunday 

morning. The main threats continue to be damaging winds with 

gusts up to 60-80 mph and potentially flooding concerns. Heavy 

rainfall is likely given the moist airmass with PWATs 

approaching maximum values for this time of year, increasing the

potential for high rainfall rates; however, if this system 

remains progressive, it could reduce some widespread flooding. A

brief tornado and hail threat cannot be ruled out especially 

this evening if storms develop out ahead of the MCS but the main

concern is damaging winds. By Sunday morning, activity is 

expected to have shifted to eastern KS with storms progged to 

continue moving east into Missouri by mid morning, though 

chances may linger in southeast KS from low-level WAA. 



A lull in storms is forecast for late Sunday morning through the 

early afternoon before another round of storms is possible late 

Sunday afternoon. There is some question as to where the outflow 

boundary from overnight/Sunday morning convection will end up. Model 

guidance suggests a boundary across southeast KS with convergence 

along it, resulting in additional storm development mainly in 

southeast and parts of southern KS. Assuming this is where the 

boundary sets up, plenty of instability and wind shear are 

anticipated making any storm that develops having the potential to 

be severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large 

hail. Storm chances will start to diminish Sunday night as storms 

move south and east of the area. Additionally, its possible for some 

of our southern most counties to approach Heat Advisory criteria if 

this is where the boundary sets up, though given uncertainty at this 

time decided not to issue one, though later forecast shifts can 

reevaluate. 



Continuing into next week, most of Monday looks to remain dry as the 

front will be south of our area. Periodic rain chances look possible 

for much of the week as the upper air pattern remains relatively 

active as multiple shortwave troughs are progged to move across

the region. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the 

Northern Plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Its 

possible for rain chances to clip parts of our area but better 

chances remain out of our area. Flow aloft transitions to 

westerly/northwesterly over the Plains as ridging builds into 

the western CONUS with embedded shortwaves anticipated to ride 

the ridging. This will keep periodic shower and storm chances 

possible through much of the week with higher chances likely in 

the evenings into the overnight hours. For temperatures, highs 

are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the 

work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time

of year.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



A line of thunderstorms is currently traversing the forecast

area bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the area. HUT and

ICT will see these impacts to start the TAF period. Additional

thunderstorms are expected overnight with the main impacts being

reduced vis, low cigs, and occasionally breezy winds. 



Storms will shift out of the area and cigs will lift to VFR

levels generally after 12-15Z. Additional storms are possible

for south-central and southeastern Kansas towards the end of the

forecast time frame, but confidence remains low on exact

location as it will depend on where boundaries linger following

overnight storm activity.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ033-048-049-051>053.

Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ070>072.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...GC

AVIATION...ADK/AMD