FXUS63 KDDC 210636

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

136 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Several t-storm episodes are forecast over the next week.



- Temperatures will generally be cooler than average for this 

  time of year through Friday, followed by a warming trend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



The ongoing t-storm cluster is pushing a surface boundary 

(effective cold front) into Oklahoma. Cooler air can be expected

today for areas that received heavy rain overnight (Dodge City 

north to Hays and eastward into central Kansas), with warmer 

temperatures in the southwest corner of the state. An 

anomalously strong mid to high level jet will be situated across

the high plains today. T-storms will develop across the western

high plains and progress into western Kansas in the evening. It

is uncertain how far south and east this storm cluster will get

as places like Scott City, Syracuse and Dighton have the best 

chance of rain. These storms could be severe with damaging winds

and large hail.



Rain chances are lower for Monday as an effective front lingers

across the southern plains. But with light upslope flow on the

high plains, t-storms could still develop on the elevated 

terrain and move into western Kansas in the evening, 

particularly given the continued strong upper level flow for 

late June.



Active weather days are forecast for Tuesday through Thursday 

as air mass recovery occurs across southwest Kansas, along with

persistent mid to high level flow across the Rockies. An upper 

level trough will be located over the upper Midwest, with a 

flat upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ample moisture will 

be in place for t-storms along with moist upslope low level 

flow. T-storms will likely form on the western high plains and 

progress eastward into Kansas. 



By Friday the various ensemble means indicate an upper level

trough developing over the western United States. A return to

southerly winds is forecast, with warming temperatures. Also, 

very high dewpoints can be expected as we warm up and recent 

rains will lead to abundant evapo-transpiration. Given upper 

level ridging ahead of the western trough, heat indices could 

reach well above 100 in central Kansas where 70-75F dewpoints 

may reside. There is high uncertainty in the evolution of the 

upper level pattern after Friday as some ensemble suites 

progress the upper level trough eastward while others build a 

upper ridge over the plains.



In summary, over the next several days there are high chances 

of a few episodes of significant rains and severe weather 

across central and western Kansas. The grand ensemble shows high

chances (70-90%) for total rains over 1" across central Kansas,

with moderate chances across far western Kansas.





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Low level stratus developing on the backside of a departing surface 

low will sink southward across central Kansas into portions of 

southwest Kansas overnight, resulting in potential MVFR cigs in 

vicinity of KHYS and possibly as far south as KDDC and KGCK by 

daybreak this morning. Prevailing low level stratus is then expected 

to begin lifting/scattering out mid/late morning, returning widespread

VFR conditions this afternoon. East-northeast winds 15 to 25kt with

gusts up to 30kt will continue to develop west to east overnight

as a surface low slides southeast across southwest Kansas into 

south central Kansas.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Finch

AVIATION...JJohnson