FXUS63 KDDC 210352 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong south winds Saturday afternoon with hotter temperatures. - Thunderstorms expected along and north of K-96 Saturday night, where some may be severe with hail and damaging winds. - Most of Sunday afternoon will be hot and dry, with more scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening with severe potential. - Cooler afternoons in the 80s Monday and Tuesday. - At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected every day this coming week, keeping temperatures several degrees below normal, and offering progress toward drought relief. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Mesoscale Discussion... The event has transitioned mainly into a wind concern, with smaller sized hail. A strong low level jet of 55 kts has lead to enhanced 0-1 km SRH of 350 m2/s2 (per KDDC VWP); but any tornado concern is confined to the eastern end of the line which is not outflow dominant; and this concern is very low. But by far the main threat is strong straight line winds of 60-70 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Midday satellite imagery and surface observations depicted stratus dissolving across eastern zones. Where sunshine prevailed across western zones, instability was building strongly late this morning, with CAPE already in excess of 2000 J/kg. Shortwave over Utah late this morning will advance quickly to near the CO/KS border around 7 pm. Strong lee cyclogenesis is expected in eastern Colorado this afternoon in response, with 12z NAM forecasting a 990 mb cyclone near Limon at 7 pm. CAMs continue the theme that convective development will be favored in the northeast quadrant of this cyclone, near the CO/KS/NE tristate area, 4-7 pm. Most, if not all, of this activity is expected to remain out of the DDC CWA through 7 pm. After 7 pm, 12z RRFS maintains continuity with other models suggesting a bimodal thunderstorm distribution, with a severe MCS across NW KS around 8 pm, and other much more isolated storms somewhere near the Elkhart/far southwest Kansas vicinity. Instability and wind shear will support strong updrafts, and large hail/damaging winds in both cases. Damaging wind potential will clearly be highest this evening, especially north of K-96 and east of US 283, as the MCS impacts the northeast zones. Wind gusts of 70-80 mph are possible with this MCS through midnight, by which time the MCS is expected to exit into central Kansas. Highest confidence is with SPC 30%/hatched damaging wind probability tonight, north of US 50. South winds will increase dramatically this afternoon, gusting near 40 mph, in response to the strong lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. This will maintain strong instability across all of SW KS, but models continue to suggest coverage will be much less south of about K-96 through tonight. Highest, definite/categorical pops remain in the northeast zones for the potentially damaging MCS this evening. A low level jet will keep south to southeast winds strong and gusty through tonight, and with high moisture content (dewpoints in the 60s), temperatures will struggle to fall below 70 degrees at many locations sunrise Sunday. Despite an introduction of light northerly wind components, models suggest more hot temperatures in the 90s Father's Day afternoon. Most locations will be dry for most of Sunday and Sunday evening, but at least isolated storms are expected to develop at peak heating through 7 pm. Indications again favor coverage across the northeast zones Sunday evening, where some storms may produce severe hail/wind. All model guidance shows cooling Monday, in response to northeast to easterly upslope in a post cold front environment. Afternoon temperatures will be held down, well down into the 80s, several degrees below the normal high of 90. Daylight Monday is forecast to be dry. However, models display a classic summer MCS pattern Monday night, as a shortwave rounds the northern periphery of a strong 597 dm midlevel high over SW TX. Thunderstorms that initiate on the Colorado Rockies Monday afternoon will organize into bowing segments as they track southeast along/north of the stalled frontal zone. NBM pops will continue to increase for Monday night, and expect SPC severe wind probability to increase. The synoptic pattern is forecast to change little if any Tuesday and Wednesday, with the WNWly midlevel flow maintained over SW KS. Widespread chance to likely category NBM pops, highest at night, were accepted and reflect the expected wet MCS pattern. Each MCS will hold damaging hail/wind potential, and flash flooding/hydrology products may become more necessary with time next week, after repeated MCSs. Models depict a very favorable pattern to significantly reduce drought across SW KS next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 A large complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will roll southeast across western Kansas early this TAF period. The greatest chance for impact will be at the HYS terminal, although we will carry at PROB30 for thunderstorms for a few hours at DDC, GCK, and LBL as well. The thunderstorm impacts will wane later tonight, and winds will eventually become northeasterly behind the system as it pulls away. A period of MVFR flight category due to stratus in the 2000 to 3000 foot range can be expected Sunday morning on the northerly winds. Any MVFR (or brief IFR) flight category is expected to become VFR by late morning. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Finch DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Umscheid