FXUS63 KARX 210504 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1204 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional rain very likely (60-95% chance) Sunday but this will be confined to northeast IA and southwest WI. - Showers and storms likely (60-90% chance) Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Rain very likely Sunday, but only in northeast IA, southwest WI Sunday, wave currently moving over the High Plains will roll eastward to IL. As this occurs, broad area of low pressure will develop from KS into IA/MO/IL, driving robust moist advection across the mid and lower Mississippi Valleys. Vast majority of rain will fall near a front extending from northern MO into central IL. In our neck of the woods, some wrap around moisture should be enough for some showers to develop given the forcing aloft. Without deeper moisture however, am not expecting either severe thunderstorms nor hazardous rain amounts (only extreme southern Grant County has an appreciable chance - 20-30% per 21.00z HREF - to exceed 1" of rain). Showers and storms likely Tuesday into Wednesday Strong agreement continues across guidance that an upper wave will barrel from ND to Lake Superior Tuesday into Wednesday. At least some southerly return flow looks to occur as a weak surface high sets up in the Ohio Valley. This, along with strong forcing with the wave should (60-90%) lead to showers and thunderstorms. Presence of a west-northwesterly upper jet should allow for enough shear for organized convection but, given limited moisture return, severe storms appear unlikely. Nonetheless, this will be our next period to watch for potentially hazardous weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 A shortwave trough will move through the region on Fathers Day. This system will provide chances for showers and storms mainly along and south of Interstate 90. The highest rain chances will be in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Much of the area will will remain VFR. If there is any MVFR ceilings, it would be in Fayette and Clayton counties in northeast Iowa, and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...Boyne