FXUS62 KTAE 211014 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 614 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 614 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - Seasonable summer thunderstorms will continue today and through the week ahead. Be ready to head indoors when storms approach. - There is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents at all area beaches today. Heed the advice of beach flags and local officials. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The 00z 500 mb upper air plot from Saturday evening nicely showed a trough extending from northern Alabama back into central Mississippi. This feature will be moving east across the Chattahoochee this morning, then exiting into east-central Georgia by this evening. The accompanying large-scale lift will support an early blossoming of thunderstorms today, perhaps not long after sunrise. Storms will continue through this afternoon. Once that trough moves off to the east, it will be followed by height rises and a little subsidence late today. So today's early-developing storms will also exit or dissipate on the early side this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 From Monday through Thursday, the pattern will feature an east- west oriented low-mid level subtropical ridge axis across the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf. To its north, we will be under the southerly fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. In the west- northwest flow aloft through Thursday, storms could loosely organize into gusty multi-cell clusters. The Wet Microburst Severity Index maxes out for the week on Tuesday and Wednesday, when steering flow briefly becomes more northwesterly than westerly, so those two days stand out as having greatest convective gust potential. After the recent days of rain, this week's pattern will seem like a return to our more familiar rhythm of scattered afternoon thunderstorms, with offshore or coastal convection in the morning hours. On Friday and Saturday, the mid-latitude westerlies will retreat back well to the north. The portion of the 500 mb subtropical ridge axis over Florida will strengthen and expand more into Georgia and Alabama. There will certainly still be some seabreeze convection each afternoon, given favorably moist PW values. However, the warming mid-levels and some subsidence with the building ridge will lessen convective coverage. Storm motions will also slow- down, and storm mode will become more single-cell and pulsy in nature. Shorter-lived and slower-moving storms just do not cover as much ground as longer-lived and faster-moving storms, which also contributes to a downward trend in rain chances on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 IFR conditions are expected to develop around daybreak for DHN and ABY terminals. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in late this morning from the southwest to northeast and continue through the day. MVFR cigs can be expected in and around thunderstorms. Frequent lightning and erratic winds will be possible within thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to dissipate following sunset this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Through Wednesday, a subtropical ridge axis will extend across Central Florida and into the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to occasionally moderate westerly breezes along the Northeast Gulf Coast. On Thursday, high pressure will expand into the Northeast Gulf, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze the dominant wind regime. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The main concern today and this week will be erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of summertime thunderstorms. A seasonably hot, muggy, and unstable air mass will prevail. Light southwest to westerly breezes are expected through at least Thursday, with the coastal seabreeze enhancement each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Today will bring a return to a more normal coverage of mainly afternoon summertime thunderstorms. This will continue through Saturday. As such, the main concern will be with short-lived nuisance runoff issues beneath the core of stronger storms. On the river side, runoff of from recent heavy rains are routing downstream through out river systems. The biggest rises have been in the Pea/Choctawhatchee basin. The latest river forecast still brings the Choctawhatchee at Bruce into Minor Flood starting Wednesday night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 74 92 76 / 80 10 40 0 Panama City 87 79 89 80 / 70 20 30 0 Dothan 85 73 91 75 / 90 20 20 10 Albany 86 73 91 75 / 70 20 30 20 Valdosta 88 73 92 75 / 70 20 30 0 Cross City 92 76 93 77 / 40 10 10 0 Apalachicola 87 80 88 80 / 40 10 20 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner