FXUS62 KTAE 210509 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 109 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - Isolated flash flooding is possible through this evening. The overall risk appears lower compared to the last couple days. If you encounter flooded roads, turn around don't drown. - There is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents at all area beaches through this weekend. Heed the advice of beach flags and local officials. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Currently, a broad upper level trough over the eastern conus is stretching eastward, dragging a string of increased vorticity along the gulf coast well behind it. This, along with some enhanced winds aloft will help boost convection this afternoon and evening. With PWATs still over 2 inches, these storms are still expected to be rather efficient rainmakers. Some localized flooding may be possible for areas that see training storms, or have already experienced high rainfall amounts. Sunday, with PWATs still near 2 inches, and the upper level trough now to the northeast of us, high res model guidance has a wide spread, but more seabreeze driven convective pattern in place. Thereafter, winds aloft become more zonal the first half of the work week, bringing a slight downtick in PWATS, though still ample enough for daily afternoon convection. Another increase in storms is possible midweek as a stretched longwave trough influences the area. Stronger northwest flow may help with a drying trend into the weekend, though guidance has been mixed on some upstream shortwave features that may have other plans. Daytime high temperatures are expected to increase to the low to mid 90s for much of the week, with overnight lows expected to be in the mid 70s. This will hover near to slightly above normals for this time of the year for most locations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Benign conditions are expected through daybreak, with lowering cigs for DHN and ABY terminals approaching daybreak with IFR ceilings. Showers and thunderstorms return by mid-morning, spreading from southwest to northeast through the day. Frequent lightning and erratic winds will be possible within thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to dissipate following sunset this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Westerly winds generally 5 to 15 kts with seas of 2 to 3 ft expected throughout the period. Thunderstorm activity could result in slightly higher winds and seas. Mid to upper level ridging will continue to expand across the Florida Peninsula throughout the weekend and through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with strong gusty winds and pockets of heavy rain possible. Thunderstorm coverage on Sunday will decrease to more normal summertime coverage, with that level of coverage continuing into the new work week. Otherwise, the air mass will be seasonably hot, muggy and unstable for the next 7 days. Light southwest to westerly breezes will prevail, with the coastal seabreeze enhancement each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Isolated flash flooding is still possible this evening. Even so, the overall threat will be lower today and during the last couple of days. WPC is carrying a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today for our Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties. The air mass today will still be very moist, and there is still some larger-scale jet stream lift inplay. However, the stalled front over Alabama and Georgia in recent days is losing definition and dissipating. This reduced focus will lessen the prospect of getting extreme rainfall amounts, since it makes it harder to get training or backbuilding thunderstorms. Still, the very moist air mass will support torrential instantaneous rainfall rates, and recent rains have lowered flash flood guidance values in spots. The 00z HREF shows neighborhood probabilities of exceeding flash flood guidance in the 5-20 percent range for most of the region... lowest along the Panhandle coast. From Sunday onward through the week ahead, flash flooding is generally not expected. A typical scattering of summertime afternoon storms will support short-lived nuisance runoff issues beneath the core of stronger storms. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 74 92 76 / 70 10 40 0 Panama City 87 79 89 80 / 40 10 20 0 Dothan 86 74 90 75 / 60 20 50 10 Albany 88 73 90 75 / 50 20 40 10 Valdosta 90 73 92 75 / 40 10 30 0 Cross City 92 75 94 77 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 87 80 89 80 / 30 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys