FXUS62 KRAH 211038 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 630 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No major changes to the local forecast. SPC has expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across western portions of the areas. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 630 AM Sunday... 1) There is Slight Risk of severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening, mainly across the western and northern Piedmont. 2) Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid- upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of Highway 1. && .DISCUSSION... As of 630 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... There is Slight Risk of severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening, mainly across the western and northern Piedmont. A strong shortwave trough will cross the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic on Monday, with a trailing cold front poised to cross central North Carolina Monday evening and overnight. Moist southerly flow ahead of the cold front will send dew points into at least the mid-60s, if not around 70, based on some guidance, resulting in the potential for 1000-2000 MLCAPE, particularly across the western Piedmont where some mid-level capping will be more apt to erode due to approaching height falls. The belt of strongest mid-level flow looks to be maximized north of our area along with the presence of surface pressure falls and low-level back Currently, the SPC has all of Central North Carolina in a Marginal Risk, with a Slight Risk just to our north,ed flow, but 20-25 knots of bulk sfc-500mb shear will help support a severe threat. DCAPE should also be relatively high across the Piedmont, which may further support some upscale merging of cold pools and a straight-line damaging wind threat as storms move off the mountains. SPC has expanded a Slight Risk across the western half of the area and AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecasts favor mostly the Piedmont where the timing of the synoptic front and any preceding outflow boundaries interact with peak diurnal heating. WPC has western NC in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding, but with QPF having decreased a bit overall and and area average amounts of just 0.25-0.50", any minor flooding would be very localized and likely in urban areas around the Triad. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid-upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of Highway 1. A warm and increasingly humid SW flow returns Mon ahead of the slowly approaching cold front. While this period of hot weather does not appear to be especially profound or long-lasting, much of the eastern half of central NC, including from the Triangle region to the south and east, are likely to see afternoon heat indices peaking around 100F. This is also where the NWS experimental Heat Risk reaches the Major category (level 3 of 4), indicating atypically high heat that could lead to an increased risk of heat illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations. People needing to work or exercise outdoors Mon should take precautions and plan for frequent shade (or AC) and hydration breaks. Temps on Tue will remain above normal with elevated humidity, but the increase in clouds should keep temps and heat indices just under critical values. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM Sunday... VFR expected to continue through 12Z Monday. Mainly light swly surface winds may become weakly gusty into the teens kts at times with heating this afternoon. Outlook: Return flow moisture will yield a chance of MVFR stratus at Monday morning, mainly around FAY, and scattered convection, with maximum coverage over the Piedmont, Monday afternoon-evening. Isolated convection will linger into Tuesday with the passage of a cold front, especially from FAY to RWI. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933 June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BLS AVIATION...BLS