FXUS62 KRAH 210600 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Rain chances and amounts have lowered a bit for Monday, otherwise no significant changes from earlier forecasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 210 PM Saturday... 1) Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid- upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of Highway 1. 2) Shower and storm chances increase on Monday with the next cold front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 210 PM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid-upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of Highway 1. A warm and increasingly humid SW flow returns Mon ahead of the slowly approaching cold front. While this period of hot weather does not appear to be especially profound or long-lasting, much of the eastern half of central NC, including from the Triangle region to the south and east, are likely to see afternoon heat indices peaking around 100F. This is also where the NWS experimental Heat Risk reaches the Major category (level 3 of 4), indicating atypically high heat that could lead to an increased risk of heat illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations. People needing to work or exercise outdoors Mon should take precautions and plan for frequent shade (or AC) and hydration breaks. Temps on Tue will remain above normal with elevated humidity, but the increase in clouds should keep temps and heat indices just under critical values. KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower and storm chances increase on Monday with the next cold front. A vigorous shortwave will approach from the TN Valley on Monday, moving east across central NC on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile the associated surface low will move across the OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, as the trailing cold front crosses our region early Tuesday morning. As warm moist SW flow develops ahead of the front, with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph, dew points will increase into the upper-60s to lower-70s on Monday, and there should be adequate sunshine at least through early afternoon for good boundary layer heating and steep low-level lapse rates. While mid-level lapse rates will be limited, most deterministic and ensemble guidance still depicts 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the region. Mid-level flow looks strongest to our north, but bulk shear could still reach 25-35 kts. AI NWP models generally have us in a 30% to 60% chance of severe weather, with a couple even exceeding 60% in the NW. So SPC has central NC in a Day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather. The main threat would be damaging winds. As for rainfall amounts, POPs have come down slightly but still range from likely across the far north to low chance in the far south on Monday afternoon and evening. Will have to see if the slight drying trend in the guidance continues, but for now WPC QPF ranges from around a half inch in the far NW Piedmont to only a few hundredths in the far south. However, locally higher amounts will be possible in any storms. More isolated to scattered diurnal convection is expected each day for the rest of the workweek. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... A residual continental (dry) airmass over cntl NC will favor VFR conditions through at least 06Z Mon. Mainly light swly surface winds may become weakly gusty into the teens kts at times with heating this afternoon. Outlook: Return flow moisture will yield a chance of probably MVFR stratus at FAY Mon morning and scattered convection, with maximum coverage over the Piedmont, Mon afternoon-evening. A chance of convection will linger into Tue with the passage ofa cold front, especially from FAY to RWI, though with probably only isolated coverage owing to increasingly-westerly (downslope) low-level flow. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022 June 23: KRDU: 100/2024 KFAY: 102/1981 Record Low Temperatures: June 20: KRDU: 54/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933 June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024 June 25: KFAY: 75/1952 June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Danco AVIATION...MWS