FXUS62 KMLB 210552 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 152 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening rain chances are forecast Sunday with drier air gradually reducing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday. - Going into the work weak, heat and widespread Major HeatRisk impacts return the first half, then taper off the second half. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Current-Tonight... An early start to convection has been primarily focused from Brevard and Osceola county northward early this afternoon. Storm motion is tracked towards the east around 20 mph with activity forecast to continue moving offshore through the next several hours. A few stronger storms have been able to develop with the tallest storm tops reaching 40,000-50,000 ft. Isolated downburst signatures were observed on TMCO radar earlier today with velocities around 40-50 mph. Around 1:20 PM a stronger signature was observed around 55-60 mph, and prompted a brief Severe Thunderstorm Warning for portions of the Orlando metro. As we continue to monitor ongoing activity across the north, we also are watching for additional development across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast as outflow interacts with a well defined sea breeze. This area has remained mostly rain free as of 2:30PM and will be the greatest focus for strong to marginally severe storms through the remainder of the afternoon. SPC has now included all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, and the strongest storms will be capable of localized damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A brief spinup of a funnel cloud or waterspout cannot be ruled out as offshore flow and outflow boundaries interact with the east coast sea breeze. Activity first clears across the northern interior most areas while showers and isolated storms may linger along the coast through late evening. Dry conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the overnight period. Sunday-Monday... A stationary front extending across portions of the western Atlantic and southeast U.S. is gradually lifted northward as low pressure organizes across the central U.S. and into the midwest. A ribbon of mid level energy stretched across north Florida early Sunday gradually dissipates through late Monday, and occasional pulses of vorticity may pass over central Florida through the period. High pressure gradually builds aloft with its axis settling near south Florida or the Florida Straits. A broadly structured surface ridge axis remains south of the local area, and a loose pressure gradient should keep light offshore flow in place. Drier air should work to gradually reduce diurnal rain chances each day with scattered showers and storms on Sunday (30-50%) becoming more widely isolated to scattered (20-40%) on Monday. Efficient surface heating and mixing of dry air aloft may allow for a few strong storms capable of frequent lightning and downburst wind gusts of 40- 50 mph. Weakening steering flow may also contribute to a localized threat for heavy rainfall in slow moving storms. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s on Sunday increase 2-3 degrees into Monday. A Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk exists on Sunday with increasing heat impacts expected Monday as a Major HeatRisk becomes more widespread. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle for any period of time! Look before you lock! Tuesday-Friday... A mid level "troughy" patten holds over the eastern U.S. while high pressure works to maintain influence of the local weather pattern. Offshore surface flow persists while the structure of a weak ridge axis is generally maintained near or over south Florida. Lower coverage of isolated to scattered storms continues Tuesday before a more summerlike pattern of widely scattered showers and storms returns each afternoon and evening mid to late week. The heat continues, with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will continue to impact east central Florida through the period. Remember to stay hydrated and reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of showers and storms. Offshore flow and deep moisture is favoring high coverage of offshore moving showers and storms this afternoon and evening, and a strong storm will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts or greater. Prevailing offshore flow mostly remains 10 kts or less into early next week, and winds shift east-southeast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Scattered coverage of showers and storms continues Sunday with drier air helping to reduce rain chances over the waters into mid week. Seas of 1-2 ft persist. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 A few showers linger across northern portions of east central Florida, but this activity should diminish by 07Z, with dry conditions then forecast through Sunday morning. Onset of showers and storms should not be as early as Saturday, with a more typical development of scattered showers and storms into the afternoon hours. Have VCTS in the TAFs starting around 18Z for inland sites, and around 19-20Z at the coast as convection and outflow boundaries shift east and collide with the east coast sea breeze, increasing coverage of storms toward the coast. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty and erratic winds will occur near any storms. Storms will shift offshore and diminish into the evening. W/SW winds increase to 5-7 knots, with the east coast sea breeze switching winds onshore at the coast, generally out of the E/NE up to 7-10 knots. Sea breeze/outflow from storms then look to shift inland through late afternoon/early evening, leading to additional wind shifts to an onshore direction across the interior. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 93 76 / 60 20 20 10 MCO 93 75 95 76 / 60 20 30 10 MLB 90 76 91 77 / 60 30 20 10 VRB 91 75 92 77 / 40 30 20 10 LEE 92 76 95 77 / 40 20 20 0 SFB 93 75 96 76 / 60 20 30 10 ORL 93 76 95 77 / 60 20 30 10 FPR 91 75 92 76 / 30 30 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Weitlich