FXUS62 KMHX 210635

AFDMHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

235 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Increased pops slightly Tuesday. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Only slight chances for showers or storms early week, with 

best chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. 



3) Becoming hot and humid again next week with highs in the 90s,

and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pres shifts offshore early next week, 

while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid

Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the 

Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets 

hung up inland from the coast. The fcst has trended drier with 

00z model suite Monday with only slgt chc (20%) inland. More 

breezy on Mon as thermal gradient inc in addition to the cold 

front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some 

weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC Mon evening, 

but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to 

no higher than 30% Mon evening. Front will move through Tuesday 

night, and have increased pops slightly for Tue afternoon and 

eve ahead of it. Lesser precip chances Wed and Thu. Cont hot 

with the offshore flow and highs in the 90s again. Covg of 

showers/storms may inc late week as next shortwave enters the 

region.



KEY MESSAGE 2...With the return swrly flow, hot and humid 

conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, 

though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with 

readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, other than 

ocnl sct/bkn cirrus streaming through. High pressure shifts 

offshore today, with strengthening sea breeze in the afternoon 

bringing southerly wind gusts upwards of around 15 kt in it's 

wake as it progresses inland.



Outlook (Mon through Thu): Rain and storm chances have decreased

for early next week, and have 20% or less for Mon, inc to just

30-50% for Tue. Chances may inc a bit for Thu as next shortwave

trough approaches the region.



&&



.MARINE...

Latest obs show S-SW winds 5-10 kt with seas around 2 ft. High

pressure will grad shift offshore today, with increasing southerly

flow 10-15 kt this afternoon and evening and seas 2-3 ft.



Outlook (Mon through Thu): Tightening of the thermal gradient

for Mon as conditions become hotter, and weakening cold front

approach ctrl NC. The winds have dec a bit with this forecast

update, and widespread 25+ kt winds do not appear likely attm.

However, with late afternoon/early evening thermal gradient 

inc, the areas that typically see these stronger gusts like

eastern Pamlico and Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as the

adjacent nearshore areas of the coastal waters may see ocnl

gusts over 25 knots. Seas should remain below 6 ft. The front

will move through the waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE

5-15 kt behind it. 



&&



.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CQD/TL

AVIATION...CQD

MARINE...CQD/TL