FXUS62 KMFL 210527 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - Heat indices as high as 105-112 degrees expected each day through the end of the weekend. - Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will continue to disperse across the region, mainly in Southeast Florida. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be hazardous to sensitive populations. - Increasing chances for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 No major changes are anticipated in the short term with the forecast, as the story continues moist and unstable airmass resulting in daily pop-up thunderstorms while general overall ridging over southern Florida prevents any strong storm motion as well as any pattern regime changes. Storms have already developed over portions of central and southern Florida, and will continue through the daytime heating hours. Latest model runs continue to indicate a surge tonight of precipitable water up to 2in across the region, with widespread SBCAPE > 1000J/kg with some isolated regions of 2000J/kg. Without a lack of any significant surface flow, most storms will develop initially off of sea breeze boundaries, and then off of outflow boundaries that develop. While ridging is in place across the region, perturbations within the flow have the potential to amplify some thunderstorms that develop into stronger storms. While unlikely, some of these storms may become marginally severe, with widespread DCAPE values > 1000J/kg. Although there is plenty of moisture to work with and a lack of storm motion, these storms will likely be short lived enough to not generate any flooding concerns. The other main concern over the next couple days continues to be the heat, with high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s as well as RH values ranging from the upper 80s along the coasts to upper 90s to 100% inland. This will result in heat index values varying from mid to upper 100s Saturday, to potentially reaching low 110s values on Sunday. A Heat Advisory will continue for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Collier counties will continue for today, with heat headlines likely to extend into tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Hot conditions are expected to continue into the next week, with 100+ heat index values continuing across most of the region. In general, the same weather pattern will continue through next week, with upper level ridging and weak surface and upper air flow resulting in daily thunderstorms off of sea breeze interactions. Models still indicate mid-level RH values falling due to Saharan dust, reducing precipitation chances in the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail this morning, with light and variable winds at all terminals. Winds become southerly this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at KAPF, as chances for SHRA/TSRA increase. Included a few PROB30s where higher confidence exists regarding impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Light southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf. Tonight, winds could veer from the north/northeast across all local waters before settling back from the south on Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Onshore flow continues through southern Florida, with light southeasterly winds in southeastern Florida as well as light southwesterly winds in southwestern Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing and ongoing across southwestern Florida, with additional storms expected throughout central and southeastern Florida as the day progresses. Winds in the stronger storms will become erratic and potentially gusty. Winds will gradually decrease to light and variable overnight. Dispersions will remain poor on Saturday, but will likely increase on Sunday. RH values will remain well above critical values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 78 93 80 / 60 20 20 10 West Kendall 94 76 94 78 / 60 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 94 78 94 80 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 93 79 93 80 / 50 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 92 81 / 60 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 80 / 70 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 95 80 95 81 / 70 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 80 / 50 30 30 10 Boca Raton 91 79 91 81 / 60 30 20 10 Naples 91 78 93 79 / 20 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zwink LONG TERM....Zwink AVIATION...ATV