FXUS62 KGSP 211049 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 649 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 12z TAFs. Confidence continues to increase regarding the potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening. SPC has placed a good portion of our North Carolina zones in a Slight Risk area from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Expect the dry weather to continue today with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning this week. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main hazard. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Expect the dry weather to continue today with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning this week. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main hazard. Weak sfc high pressure will linger over our area today which should help keep us mostly dry. Most of the near-term model guidance has backed off on PoPs this afternoon/evening which is in line with the latest CAM output. They continue to produce some isolated to sct showers/storms, but nearly all of them are just outside of our CWA. Based on the most recent output, our southernmost zones may have the best chance of seeing some shower activity. With low-level SWLY flow across our area today, temperatures will warm, with highs expected to be just above normal for the first day of summer. A weak cold front will approach the western Carolinas from the W/NW on Monday, and move thru our area Monday night into Tuesday. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop out ahead of the front Monday afternoon/evening per the latest CAM guidance. The latest model guidance continues to depict roughly 20 to 30 kts of deep-layer shear ahead of the front and 1500 to 2000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE across most of our CWA. As such, strong to severe storms will be possible. The latest Day 2 SPC Outlook now has a good portion of our NC zones in a Slight Risk area for damaging straight-line winds on Monday. The rest of our CWA is still under a Marginal Risk for damaging winds. At this time, large hail and/or tornadoes appear unlikely. In addition, it's looking like we may see one round of convection move thru our area Monday afternoon and a second round move thru later Monday evening. This will be watched closely as we get closer to Monday and more high-resolu- tion guidance captures the full event. Otherwise, breezy SWLY winds can also be expected ahead of the front on Monday, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected outside the NC mountains and marginally weaker gusts over the mountains. Behind the front, a more diurnally-driven convective pattern returns for the rest of the week with highs near normal thru Thursday, and values just above normal for Friday and the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at all sites thru the 12z TAF period. Other than a few high cirrus, skies have mostly cleared this morning. We'll likely see a few cumulus and high cirrus again this afternoon across the area. Fog settled in the usual mtn valleys earlier this morning and has also developed over Lake Hartwell and then drifted over KAND over the past couple of hrs. As such, I have prevailing 1/2 sm with fog and a TEMPO for 1/4 sm from 12 to 14z. Any restrictions should burn off by 14z if not earlier. Winds will remain light and VRB to calm thru the morning and eventually pick up from the S/SW again this afternoon with speeds between 5 and 10 kts. KCLT will likely see some low-end gusts towards the end of their TAF period later tomorrow morning. Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions are likely to return as a cold front moves thru the area Monday into Tuesday. Diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms con- tinue behind the front for the rest of the week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JPT