FXUS62 KGSP 210730 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues to increase regarding the potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening. SPC has placed a good portion of our North Carolina zones in a Slight Risk area from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Expect the dry weather to continue today with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning this week. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main hazard. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Expect the dry weather to continue today with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning this week. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main hazard. Weak sfc high pressure will linger over our area today which should help keep us mostly dry. Most of the near-term model guidance has backed off on PoPs this afternoon/evening which is in line with the latest CAM output. They continue to produce some isolated to sct showers/storms, but nearly all of them are just outside of our CWA. Based on the most recent output, our southernmost zones may have the best chance of seeing some shower activity. With low-level SWLY flow across our area today, temperatures will warm, with highs expected to be just above normal for the first day of summer. A weak cold front will approach the western Carolinas from the W/NW on Monday, and move thru our area Monday night into Tuesday. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop out ahead of the front Monday afternoon/evening per the latest CAM guidance. The latest model guidance continues to depict roughly 20 to 30 kts of deep-layer shear ahead of the front and 1500 to 2000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE across most of our CWA. As such, strong to severe storms will be possible. The latest Day 2 SPC Outlook now has a good portion of our NC zones in a Slight Risk area for damaging straight-line winds on Monday. The rest of our CWA is still under a Marginal Risk for damaging winds. At this time, large hail and/or tornadoes appear unlikely. In addition, it's looking like we may see one round of convection move thru our area Monday afternoon and a second round move thru later Monday evening. This will be watched closely as we get closer to Monday and more high-resolu- tion guidance captures the full event. Otherwise, breezy SWLY winds can also be expected ahead of the front on Monday, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected outside the NC mountains and marginally weaker gusts over the mountains. Behind the front, a more diurnally-driven convective pattern returns for the rest of the week with highs near normal thru Thursday, and values just above normal for Friday and the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at all sites thru the 06z TAF period. Expect few to bkn high clouds to stream over the area from the west thru the overnight and into the morning with skies clearing later this morning. We'll likely see a few cumulus and high cirrus again this afternoon across the area. The usual fog-prone mtn valleys will probably see another round of fog and low stratus this morning, but it's not expected to reach KAVL. Winds will remain light and VRB to calm thru the morning and eventually pick up from the S/SW again this afternoon with speeds between 5 and 10 kts. Outlook: Restrictions are likely to return ahead of a cold front Monday into Tuesday. Diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms continue behind the front for the rest of the week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JPT