FXUS62 KGSP 210504

AFDGSP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC

104 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry through the weekend before daily shower and thunderstorm

chances return next week. Severe storms are possible Monday

afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main hazard.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key message 1: Dry through the weekend before daily shower and 

thunderstorm chances return next week. Severe storms are possible 

Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main 

hazard. 



Surface high pressure remains over the Carolinas and northeast 

Georgia through the weekend keeping lower humidity and dry 

conditions around. The NBM continues to back off on PoPs Sunday 

afternoon and evening and this matches the latest CAM trends showing 

dry conditions lingering over the GSP CWA. It will be cooler today 

with highs running near normal to just below normal. Warmer and 

above normal highs return Sunday to kick off the first official day 

of summer as low-level SW'ly flow gradually strengthens ahead of an 

approaching cold front. 



The cold front approaches out of the W/NW on Monday before tracking 

across the area Monday night into Tuesday. A line of storms looks to 

develop ahead of the front Monday afternoon and evening per the 12Z 

CAMs that already go out through Monday evening. With guidance 

depicting 20-25 kts of deep layer shear in place ahead of the front 

and 1,500-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE developing during peak heating hours, 

strong to severe storms will be possible. The Day 3 SPC Outlook 

showing a Marginal risk across the entire GSP CWA appears warranted. 

Damaging winds will be the main hazard with any severe storms that 

develop. Timing for severe on Monday looks to be from roughly 2 PM 

to 10 PM per the 12Z NAMNest but this is subject to change as the 

rest of the high-res guidance begins to fully capture the event. 

Breezy SW winds can also be expected ahead of the front on Monday, 

ranging from 20 to 30 mph (well below advisory criteria). 



A more diurnal convective pattern returns for the rest of the week 

behind the front with highs each afternoon ending up near normal to 

just above normal.



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.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at 

all sites thru the 06z TAF period. Expect few to bkn high clouds 

to stream over the area from the west thru the overnight and into 

the morning with skies clearing later this morning. We'll likely

see a few cumulus and high cirrus again this afternoon across the

area. The usual fog-prone mtn valleys will probably see another 

round of fog and low stratus this morning, but it's not expected

to reach KAVL. Winds will remain light and VRB to calm thru the

morning and eventually pick up from the S/SW again this afternoon

with speeds between 5 and 10 kts. 



Outlook: Restrictions are likely to return ahead of a cold front 

Monday into Tuesday. Diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms 

continue behind the front for the rest of the week.



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.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None.

NC...None.

SC...None.



&&



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AR/CP/JPT