FXUS61 KRNK 210619

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

219 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Severe Weather and localized Flash Flooding Monday



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Tranquil weather is forecasted to persist today.



2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for 

Monday, some of which may produce damaging wind gusts and 

localized flash flooding. This will be followed by widely 

scattered afternoon & evening storms later this week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Tranquil weather continues today.



As the morning progresses, a surface trough combining with 

afternoon heating will create fair-weather cumulus clouds, which

will develop primarily over the mountains. Because dew points 

will hover in the upper 50s to lower 60s beneath a layer of dry 

air aloft, rain chances will remain near zero for most of the 

area. If any isolated spot manages to see a light shower or 

sprinkle, it will occur across the Greenbrier Valley into the 

Alleghany Highlands. High temperatures will range from the low 

to mid-80s across the mountains to the lower 90s east of the 

Blue Ridge.



The summer solstice will occur this morning, June 21 at 424 AM 

EDT.





KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 

forecasted for Monday, some of which may produce damaging wind 

gusts and localized flash flooding. This will be followed by 

widely scattered afternoon & evening storms later this week.



Conditions will shift dramatically tomorrow as a disturbance 

running ahead of a cold front tracks across Kentucky, then over 

southern Virginia. The combination of intense afternoon 

heat—with temperatures reaching the low to mid-80s in the 

mountains and the low to mid-90s in the foothills and 

Piedmont—and deep moisture with dew points in the 60s will bring

a distinct threat for severe weather and flooding. Storms will 

primarily move across the mountains in the afternoon before 

pushing east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon and into the 

evening hours. Driven by a southwest low- level jet, increasing 

moisture, boundary layer instabilities, and steep lapse rates, 

the primary threat tomorrow will manifest as damaging winds. 

However, weak vertical shear will likely limit widespread, 

organized storm structures. The mountains will face a marginal 

risk for severe weather, while a slight risk will cover the 

foothills and Piedmont. Flash flooding will serve as a secondary

threat; with elevated Theta-E values and precipitable water 

amounts running near 2 inches, efficient, slow-moving storms 

could produce localized totals of 3 to 5 inches of rain in a 

short period, though the area will receive between a half and 

one inch of rainfall on average.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The skies will remain clear and calm for the vast majority of 

the region as VFR conditions persist through the entire forecast

period. Early this morning, however, localized areas around 

KLWB will see a dramatic drop in visibility, where dense fog 

will likely trigger LIFR conditions for a brief window. As the 

morning sun burns away the fog and afternoon heating takes hold,

fair-weather cumulus clouds will begin to dot the sky, floating

lazily over the landscape. These clouds will hold steady 

through the peak of the day before gradually fading away into a 

clear sky around sunset.





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



The weather will take a more active turn as Monday begins, 

bringing an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms 

across the region. As this stormy activity passes directly over 

the airports, pilots and flight crews can expect probable sub- 

VFR conditions, with sudden drops in ceilings and visibility 

causing temporary flight disruptions.



Looking ahead to the later half of the week, scattered diurnal 

storms will likely develop during the heat of the afternoon, 

potentially impacting scheduled afternoon and evening flights 

with turbulent conditions and brief delays. Outside of the 

stormy weather, the only other major threat to flight categories

will come from early-morning mountain valley and river fog 

bringing additional windows of restricted visibility.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RCS

AVIATION...RCS