FXUS61 KRLX 210949 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 549 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 550 AM Update... SPS issued for patchy dense fog and 12z aviation discussion 300 AM Update... Details on upcoming heavy rain event. 100 AM Update... 06Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Drier today, but a potent system brings heavy rainfall, flash flooding concerns, and possible strong to severe storms to the area Sunday night through Monday. - 2) Seasonable warmth takes back over mid week amid drier weather. Active weather returns Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... 550 AM Update... An SPS has been issued for a majority of the lowlands of West Virginia and the Mid-Ohio Valley, including many counties in southeast Ohio after rainfall earlier this morning. Multiple webcams as well as GOES-19 Night Fog channel show dense fog along the river valleys in these locations. ASOS reports from HTS and PKB show visibility as low as a mile to one half of a mile in these areas. 300 AM Update... Drier weather is in store for our Sunday after morning valley fog and lingering showers in the mountains dissipate. A cold front crossing the area currently will stall across the area today and eventually lift back north as a warm front during the afternoon leading to very warm temperatures this afternoon. The lowlands will reach the lower to mid 80s. An upper-level disturbance will arrive from the west sometime tonight. Models agree on a west to east onset of rainfall, but the timing is still of variance. The GFS and Canadian models show an arrival between 12am and 2am, while the EURO slugs along across the Mid Ohio Valley around that time frame before it shifts east across the bulk of West Virginia later on. The NAM brings a quick moving round of showers and isolated storms across our Ohio and northern lowland counties early between 11pm and 2am. A second round sweeps up from the south mid-morning on Monday and lasts through the afternoon. All the models differ as to where the heaviest track of rainfall will be. Nonetheless, rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through Monday. Current WPC guidance has between 0.50" and 1.50" of rainfall across the area with locally higher amounts possible. This matches up with precipitable water values nearing 2.00". The heaviest rainfall currently looks to be across the southern mountain counties as well as the northern lowlands and northeastern mountains. WPC has a the Mid-Ohio Valley in a marginal risk (level 1/4) Sunday night and a slight risk (level 2/4) across much of the area for Monday. A flood watch for flash flooding may be needed once models become more cohesive. A conditional severe weather risk also exists for Monday as elevated CAPE values around 2,000 J/kg are modeled across our southern counties in the afternoon as a cold front crosses. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather in the form of damaging winds for Monday with a slight risk just to our east. Once again, models are not handling the severity, timing, or location of these storms as they move through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lingering showers are possible behind the cold front Tuesday morning, mostly across the mountains. Overall, drier weather is in store as high pressure sinks in from the north. Temperatures will be less warm and the air mass will be less humid. This drier spell will last through Wednesday night until another front approaches from the west Thursday and brings chances for showers/thunderstorms through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually become warmer through the end of the week low to mid 80s in store many days for the end of the week and weekend. && .AVIATION/09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Areas of dense FG and BR have formed across many of the river valleys of WV and SE OH after showers earlier this morning. VIS is being reported as low as 1-2 miles across the lowlands and mountain valleys. Fog is most dense across the Mid-Ohio Valley and Tri-State Areas with ASOS obs at PKB and HTS reporting VIS as low as one half of a mile. VFR conditions will resume by ~13z and will last through much of the day today with SCT to BKN mid to high-level clouds between 4,500 and 20,000 feet AGL. SW'rly winds will be light to calm this morning, becoming light and variable by this afternoon though a W'rly bias is more probable in direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation and return to VFR conditions may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR expected in heavy rainfall from rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. IFR or lower conditions expected in dense valley fog Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC