FXUS61 KRLX 210710 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 310 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 300AM Update... Details on upcoming heavy rain event. 100AM Update... 06Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Drier today, but a potent system brings heavy rainfall, flash flooding concerns, and possible strong to severe storms to the area Sunday night through Monday. - 2) Seasonable warmth takes back over mid week amid drier weather. Active weather returns Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier weather is in store for our Sunday after morning valley fog and lingering showers in the mountains dissipate. A cold front crossing the area currently will stall across the area today and eventually lift back north as a warm front during the afternoon leading to very warm temperatures this afternoon. The lowlands will reach the lower to mid 80s. An upper-level disturbance will arrive from the west sometime tonight. Models agree on a west to east onset of rainfall, but the timing is still of variance. The GFS and Canadian models show an arrival between 12am and 2am, while the EURO slugs along across the Mid Ohio Valley around that time frame before it shifts east across the bulk of West Virginia later on. The NAM brings a quick moving round of showers and isolated storms across our Ohio and northern lowland counties early between 11pm and 2am. A second round sweeps up from the south mid-morning on Monday and lasts through the afternoon. All the models differ as to where the heaviest track of rainfall will be. Nonetheless, rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through Monday. Current WPC guidance has between 0.50" and 1.50" of rainfall across the area with locally higher amounts possible. This matches up with precipitable water values nearing 2.00". The heaviest rainfall currently looks to be across the southern mountain counties as well as the northern lowlands and northeastern mountains. WPC has a the Mid-Ohio Valley in a marginal risk (level 1/4) Sunday night and a slight risk (level 2/4) across much of the area for Monday. A flood watch for flash flooding may be needed once models become more cohesive. A conditional severe weather risk also exists for Monday as elevated CAPE values around 2,000 J/kg are modeled across our southern counties in the afternoon as a cold front crosses. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather in the form of damaging winds for Monday with a slight risk just to our east. Once again, models are not handling the severity, timing, or location of these storms as they move through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lingering showers are possible behind the cold front Tuesday morning, mostly across the mountains. Overall, drier weather is in store as high pressure sinks in from the north. Temperatures will be less warm and the air mass will be less humid. This drier spell will last through Wednesday night until another front approaches from the west Thursday and brings chances for showers/thunderstorms through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually become warmer through the end of the week low to mid 80s in store many days for the end of the week and weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers will continue to move through with a cold front early this morning. Some showers may contain rumbles of thunder and some lightning. Patchy valley fog is expected to form this morning, after the showers pass. Expecting the lowest VIS restrictions along the Ohio River and possibly at CRW where IFR or lower is possible. SCT cloud cover will likely impede fog from being too dense elsewhere. VFR conditions will resume by ~13z and will last through much of the day today with SCT to BKN mid to high-level clouds between 4,500 and 20,000 feet AGL. SW'rly winds will be light to calm this morning, becoming light and variable by this afternoon though a W'rly bias is more probable in direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers exiting may vary some. Restrictions and location of fog may also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/21/26 UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in heavy rain and strong storms Sunday night and Monday. IFR or lower conditions expected in dense valley fog Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC