FXUS61 KRLX 210503 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 100AM Update... 06Z Aviation Discussion 715PM Update... 00Z Aviation Discussion 121PM Update... Increased shower/thunderstorm coverage a bit later this afternoon into the evening with a shower or storm now possible as far south as Huntington and Charleston during the evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms accompany a weak front into the Mid Ohio Valley and parts of northern and central WV later this afternoon into the evening. - 2) Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorm risk continues Sunday night through Monday, but with a lot of unknowns. - 3) Seasonably warm with increasing shower/storm chances later next week into the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak cold front is working southeastward across OH at midday. Hires models show a minor increase in moisture and instability ahead of this front as it works into the Mid Ohio Valley and parts of WV later today into tonight. It's not much, but a few hundred J of CAPE with PWATS of 1.25-1.50 inches should be enough to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. These may get as far south as the I-64 corridor before everything stabilizes overnight leaving just some patchy fog to pester locations that get an evening downpour. KEY MESSAGE 2... Models continue to point to a potent disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley on Sunday into Monday spawning strong to severe thunderstorms well to our west during the day Sunday. There is still a lot of unknowns regarding how well these storms hold together as they move east into our area late Sunday night. The atmosphere will be stable early, but warmer, more unstable air will advect into the region overnight. This could be a similar situation to Thursday, where temps and dewpoints rise considerably overnight allowing storms to remain strong as they move into the region during what is normally a not so favorable time of day. Uncertainty then bleeds over into the day on Monday as some models, i.e. the NAM, show very little morning activity which allows us to rapidly destabilize during the day increasing the severe weather threat. Other models such as the RRFS give more play to the morning activity with not as much destabilization during the day. These details will be worked out in time, but widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday, pushing to our east Monday night. PWATs approach 2 inches so plenty of moisture and repeating rounds of showers/storms definitely pose a flash flood threat just about anywhere, but especially in areas hit hard with recent rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 3... Surface high pressure builds into the region midweek but we remain close to an upper level trough which wants to hang out over the Great Lakes for the rest of the week. With that in place, no big warmup can occur and disturbances can periodically kick off some showers and thunderstorms. This appears most likely as we get to Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers will continue to move through with a cold front early this morning. Some showers may contain rumbles of thunder and some lightning. Patchy valley fog is expected to form this morning, after the showers pass. Expecting the lowest VIS restrictions along the Ohio River and possibly at CRW where IFR or lower is possible. SCT cloud cover will likely impede fog from being too dense elsewhere. VFR conditions will resume by ~13z and will last through much of the day today with SCT to BKN mid to high-level clouds between 4,500 and 20,000 feet AGL. SW'rly winds will be light to calm this morning, becoming light and variable by this afternoon though a W'rly bias is more probable in direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers exiting may vary some. Restrictions and location of fog may also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/21/26 UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in heavy rain and strong storms Sunday night and Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ABE AVIATION...LTC