FXUS61 KLWX 210751

AFDLWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC

351 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all the waters Monday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy 

 rainfall possible on Monday. 



- 2) After a mid week dry spell, daily thunderstorm 

 chances will return for the end of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with 

locally heavy rainfall possible on Monday. 



After a seasonable and less humid weekend, a low pressure system is 

forecast to track from the Ohio River Valley northeast on Monday. 

The associated warm front will lift north across the region Monday 

afternoon and into the evening, bringing the next chance at severe 

weather. There still remains a good bit of uncertainty regarding

timing and severity of storms, given the model guidance 

discrepancy in the track of the low pressure system and

associated fronts. With southerly flow, a warm and moist airmass

is expected leading to adequate instability. Additionally, steep

low-level lapse rates will lead to possible damaging wind gusts

as the primary hazard type. Isolated tornadoes will also be

possible along the advancing warm front in southern PA and

northern MD. Timing looks to be mid to late afternoon through

late evening. SPC has much of the area in a Slight Risk for 

severe weather.



In addition to the severe threat, PWATs nearing 2 inches will 

lead to locally heavy rainfall within the strongest storms. The

Weather Prediction Center as most of the area in a Slight Risk

for excessive rainfall with scattered instances of flooding

possible.  



KEY MESSAGE 2...After a mid week dry spell, daily thunderstorm 

chances will return for the end of the week.



It's now looking like the cold front may not make it entirely 

through the area by Tuesday. Therefore, there may be some renewal of 

showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough serves to kick the 

front eastward. The greatest chances will be along and east of I-95. 

Temperatures will be cooler than Monday, however.



High pressure will move across the area Wednesday, resulting in the 

most pleasant day of the week. Temperatures will be near normal in 

the mid 80s with relatively low dew points in the 50s and mostly 

sunny skies.



A slow moving upper level trough/closed low and broad surface low 

pressure will slow lift through the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. 

While temperatures may not rise appreciably, there will be a return 

to muggier dew points. Specific forcing may be nebulous, but there is 

a decent model signal of at least scattered showers and 

thunderstorms each day. Some shear will be present, but instability 

may be limited, so the severe weather threat appears to be low 

(supported by various ML guidance probs).



Rain chances on Saturday may be lower as the upper level pattern 

flattens and weak high pressure likely builds somewhere near the 

east coast. However, model spread increases as an upper low moves 

into the Pacific northwest and downstream jet stream ripples could 

still result in some showers or thunderstorms in the warm and humid 

airmass.



&&



.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Winds gusts 15 to 20 knots today, remaining out of the 

west/northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday

afternoon and evening with flight restrictions likely. Outside 

of storms, southerly winds could gust to 25 kt assuming a warm 

front clears the area to the north.



With a slower moving cold front, thunderstorms could develop again 

on Tuesday afternoon, especially for the metro terminals. Wednesday 

will likely be dry. Thunderstorms are possible again on

Thursday.



&&



.MARINE...

Lighter and more variable winds areexpected over the waters 

today. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Monday and

will likely need to be extended into Tuesday. Additionally, 

showers and thunderstorms are expected across the waters Monday 

afternoon and evening with SMWs likely needed. 



Northwest winds behind a cold front may present marginal advisory 

conditions on Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorms could develop 

Tuesday afternoon as the front is now expected to be slower. Light 

winds are expected Wednesday under high pressure. The next upper 

level disturbance could bring more thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. 

Southerly channeling on the bay may also require SCAs by late in the 

day.



&&



.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DC...None.

MD...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ008.

VA...None.

WV...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530-

     535>538-542.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for 

     ANZ531>534-539>541-543.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR

AVIATION...ADS/AVS/LFR

MARINE...ADS/AVS/LFR