FXUS61 KILN 210507 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 107 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday, with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms. 2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) An upper level shortwave trough and surface low move through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Sunday night into Monday morning bringing the chance for locally heavy rain and a marginal risk for severe weather. The larger concern with this system continues to be the potential for flooding especially across areas that have already received large amounts of rainfall from the system earlier this week. Anomalously high PWATs (1.5+ inches) advect into the Ohio Valley ahead of the low by Sunday evening. The quickly moistening environment and increasing ascent along a warm front lifting into the area will likely support widespread rainfall developing Sunday evening and Sunday night. Additionally, a strong nocturnal LLJ moves into the west overnight along with increasing instability (MUCAPE) which could enhanced rainfall rates. Swaths of 1-2 inches of rain are likely to occur with locally higher amounts possible. A marginal risk for severe weather exists ahead of the low on Sunday evening and Sunday night. Shear profiles become favorable, however and boundary layer based instability is very limited. Thus, the severe risk is conditional on sufficient MLCAPE developing. The showers and storms eventually exit to the east on Monday when the low moves out of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures are likely to remain below average through much of next week as high pressure builds in from the north. The next chance for precipitation is on Thursday when an upper level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... While prevailing VFR conditions are expected overnight, some fog is possible at KCVG/KILN, and fog appears likely for KLUK. Winds will remain light today, before picking up out of the southeast during the late afternoon and evening. Some gusts to around 20 knots are possible. Showers and storms will begin to move into the area after 01Z, with winds shifting to the southwest, and eventually MVFR ceilings moving into the area as well. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening through Monday. MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and Monday as well. Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Campbell AVIATION...Hatzos