FXUS61 KCLE 210555 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 155 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly decreased storm total rainfall amounts across portions of central Ohio. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. 2) Widespread rainfall expected Sunday night through Monday which may result in rises on area rivers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are developing and will remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening as a shortwave aloft pushes through the region. Highest coverage for showers and storms will occur along and east of the I-71 corridor where the best instability, albeit fairly weak at 400-700 J/kg, exists. Locally stronger but sub- severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing isolated wind gusts of 30-40 mph and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread rainfall will overspread the Ohio Valley Sunday night through Monday as a shortwave aloft moves across the region. At the surface, the center of the low pressure is expected to track due east across northern Ohio on Monday. This system will be moisture rich as PWAT values will range between 1.25-1.75 inches, which are above the 90th percentile for mid/late June. Overall QPF amounts continue to decrease slightly with current storm total rainfall amounts ranging between 0.75-1.25 inches. Slightly higher amounts of 1.25-1.50 inches are possible near the I-75 corridor and along the lakeshore. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning, though the best instability remains south of the forecast area. Localized flooding may be possible in any convection and/or showers/storms that train over the same area. The majority of the forecast area remains in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for the western third of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure over the region this morning gradually departs east to allow low pressure to move out of the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Mostly clear skies with pockets of cirrus early this morning will give way to a mid-level broken to overcast cloud deck gradually overspreading the area this afternoon and evening. Rain will eventually arrive from west to east in the isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front out ahead of the low tonight, but slowed down the onset of rain to the 00-05Z timeframe given a lot of dry air to overcome. Light W to NW winds this morning will turn N to NW at 5-10 knots this afternoon then E at 5-10 knots tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR likely Monday with rain showers. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers Wednesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Light N to NW winds are expected early this morning increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon as high pressure gradually slides into the eastern Great Lakes to allow low pressure to approach from the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Winds will turn E this evening ahead of the warm front extending east from this low, and the E winds are expected to become quite strong in the 15-25 knots range late tonight and early Monday, especially in the western and central basins. This will build wave heights to 3-5 feet. As the low passes across northern Ohio Monday, winds will quickly turn NE behind the trailing cold front, staying in the 15-20 knot range. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed late tonight and Monday for at least the western and central basins for winds, waves, and rip currents. Light winds are expected Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes before turning S to SW ahead of the next low and associated cold front Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas