FXUS61 KBGM 210542

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

142 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Lowered temperatures on Sunday given clouds and rain in the area

for most of the day. Chances of precipitation were expanded for

late this morning into the early afternoon.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Seasonal temperatures expected today with a few isolated 

showers and thunderstorms forming in the early to mid afternoon.



2) Monday is looking cool with rain for much of the day, 

keeping temperatures cool, with seasonal temperatures and 

isolated afternoon showers return for the rest of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...



Today will be similar to yesterday with day time heating 

leading to some instability to develop. Looking at forecast 

soundings and the CAMs, it does look like the best chances for 

isolated pop up convection will be earlier in the day. Ridging 

building in will help develop a subsidence inversion that works 

its way down from about 400 mb to closer to 700 mb in the 

evening. This will limit the depth of the showers and storms so 

the later in the day, the shorter the storms with less CAPE to 

work with. Chances of precipitation were removed after about 5 

pm as by then, the depth of the dry air in the boundary layer 

coupled with the shorter storms means most precipitation will 

dry before reaching the ground. Given the inverted V soundings 

late morning into the afternoon, any shower or thunderstorm 

could contain gusty winds but are not expected to be severe. 



KEY MESSAGE 2... 



The rain that is expected to move in Monday is developing on 

the north end of a surface low that is developing tonight with a

large MCS, becoming an MCV in Kansas. The evolution of the MCV 

so far has been towards much deeper convection in central KS 

rather than North KS into NE. The MCV circulation has already 

developed in central KS which is farther south than many of the 

0Z CAMs had it. The HRRR so far is handling it the best though 

still not very representative of what is going on. The 6Z CAMs 

should handle it better but more likely the 12Z CAMs tomorrow 

will initialize well once the MCV is fully developed. With the 

south trend in the MCV, I would expect a southerly shift in the 

Precipitation as well once the models initialize better. Right 

now, went with NBM PoPs as I think that much of the area will 

still see on and off rain Monday, I dont think the rainfall 

amounts will be as high as they were looking. Storm total QPF 

was reduced by about half an inch region wide so an inch plus of

rain for most of the area is less likely though some will see 

an inch or more. Catskills and Poconos have the best chance for 

higher QPF. Rainfall rates with this system dont look too 

impressive either with clouds and rain preventing deeper 

convection from being as widespread. Drier soils and lower 

rivers will likely handle the rain well with a low risk of flash

flooding. 



Tuesday and through the rest of the week, we enter back into a 

westerly to northwesterly flow. Cooler air aloft and lots of day

time heating will allow for instability to develop each day. If

we do end up with a good amount of rain on Monday across the 

area, additional moisture from evaporation will support more 

afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. If we end up largely

being missed, then we may be fairly dry Tuesday into Wednesday 

before better low level moisture begins to return for the end of

the week into the weekend. Given the isolated nature of these 

storms Tuesday through Thursday and uncertainty with rain 

Monday, chances of precipitation were kept below 15%.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all terminals

as weak ridging builds into the area. There is a slight chance

for some isolated afternoon showers and a possible rumble of

thunder across the Southern Tier and NEPA, but confidence in

timing and location is too low to include in the TAFs. 



Outlook:



Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR, isolated showers and

thunderstorms.



Late Sunday night through Monday...Wave of low pressure with 

rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder. 



Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.



Late Wednesday night through Thursday...Additional restrictions

possible as a short wave approaches the region with showers.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AJG/BJT

AVIATION...JTC