FXUS61 KALY 210658

AFDALY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Albany NY

258 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Some patchy fog was added to the northern areas this morning, 

such at the Lake George Glens Falls area, southern Dacks and

valleys near southern VT. 



Lowered max temps a few degrees from the NBM and placed a 

slight chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm over most of 

eastern NY and western New England, as a weak sfc trough and an 

upper level disturbance moves through.



A widespread rainfall is on track for Mon-Mon night, but a

slight delay for the onset until the late morning. A 

0.75"-2.00" rainfall is possible, and a Marginal Risk will be 

in the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from southern VT, the 

Capital Region, and the northern Catskills southward with the 

removal of the "Slight Risk" due to the dry antecedent 

conditions and collaboration with WPC and WFO's OKX and BOX. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon

across most of eastern NY and western New England. 



2) High confidence for a widespread soaking rainfall across 

eastern NY/western New England Mon into Tue morning, but the 

exact location of where the heaviest rainfall occurs is still 

uncertain. This will be a largely beneficial rainfall for most 

areas, although isolated minor flooding in urban/poor drainage 

areas is possible. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...After some patchy morning fog burns off north of

the Capital Region, cyclonic flow will persist aloft one more

day, as a mid and upper level disturbance and a sfc trough will

focus some isolated-scattered showers and isolated 

thunderstorms. The coverage may be slightly more than yesterday 

with some showery activity/isolated thunderstorms also south and

west of the Capital Region. Sfc dewpoints will be mainly in the

upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. The latest HREFs indicate mean 

SBCAPEs 250-750 J/kg with a bit more deep layer shear than 

yesterday with 15-30 KT. With the residual cold pool and 

isolated taller updrafts, a few storms could have small hail 

under half inch with gust winds 35-45 mph, but we are not 

expecting any severe thunderstorms at this point. Most of the 

CAMS have the better coverage north and east of Albany and 

development near or along the higher terrain. 



All said, the activity should be timed to the diurnal heating 

and quickly diminish in the late pm/early pm with the loss of 

it. Max temps will be near or slightly below normal for the 

opening day of astronomical summer (begins at 424 am EDT) with 

mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower/mid 

70s over the hill and mtns. Humidity levels will be very 

comfortable for Fathers Day. Lows Sunday night will be mid 40s 

to mid 50s with mid and high clouds increasing with the 

approaching wave for Monday. 



KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure will be approaching from the

Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday morning. The low and and mid-level

flow become zonal and then southwesterly ahead of the wave. The

low level jet increases tapping some Gulf and Atlantic moisture,

as the isentropic lift increases ahead of the warm front to the

wave. The timing based on the short-range guidance, ensembles 

and NBM is for the rain/showers to begin in the late morning 

into the early pm across the region with clouds thickening and 

lowering quickly. The latest NAEFS indicate good moisture 

advection with PWATS increasing to 1.25-1.75" across the region

Mon-Mon night and these values are about 1-2 STDEVs above 

normal. The low and mid level FGEN increases across the region 

Mon pm-Mon night with favorable mid and upper level dynamics for

periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Some weak 

elevated instability is present Mon pm into the night period, so

we continued a slight to low chance ofthunderstorms from the 

Capital District, northern Catskills and southern VT southward, 

though the greatest threat may be closer to I-84. 



The guidance continue to be slightly further north than early

yesterday morning, but it seems the axis for the highest amounts

will still be from southern VT, the Greater Capital Region, and

the northern Catskills south and east with a sharper drop off 

north and west towards the southern Dacks and Glens Falls/Lake 

George Region. We have 1-1.75" of rainfall in these areas, 

while further to the north 0.50" to an 1.0". Localized amounts 

around 2.0" or so may occur closer to I-84. The 01Z/21 NBM 

continues to show 24-hr probabilities >1" of rain by 12Z/8am Tue

in the 60-85% range from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, 

southern VT southward. Probabilities for >2" are 20-50% from 

I-90 southward with highest probs closer to I-84 and Litchfield 

County. The rain ends from northwest to southeast Mon night thru

Tue morning, as the system pulls east of southeast New England 

and Maine.



This cyclone and its warm front will bring primarily beneficial

rainfall, and many locations from the immediate Capital

District, Schoharie Valley, Berkshires and some portions of 

southern VT are in D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought. 

based on the latest Drought Monitor. The D1 is across the mid 

Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Litchfield Co. CT and most of 

the Berkshires. We collaborated with WPC and WFO's OKX and BOX 

about the removal of the mid-Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills,

NW CT and southern Berkshires from the ERO Day 3 (which will be

Day 2) "Slight Risk" or Level 2 of 4 for flash flood potential.

Gridded FFG values are very high, antecedent conditions are 

very dry, and not sure rainfall rates will approach 1-2"/hr. The

I-90 corridor and southern VT south and east will be in a 

Marginal Risk Mon-Mon night. The rainfall will be very 

helpful for the prolonged dry conditions in these areas. Some 

ponding of water on roadways or poor drainage flooding of urban 

areas may occur closer to I-84, but we are not anticipating 

widespread flooding. An isolated flash flood can not be ruled 

out. 



Temps were lowered 3-4 degrees from the NBM with the clouds and

rain-cooled air Monday with 60s to lower 70s with some upper 

50s over the high peaks. These temps will be about 10-15 degrees

below normal. Lows in the rain Mon night will be mainly in the 

50s to lower 60s. Drier weather returns late Tue into the Wed 

with high pressure building in with seasonal temps. The weather 

pattern becomes more unsettled late in the week (Thu-Fri) with 

near to slightly above normal temps, as chances of showers and 

some thunderstorms increase with the next wave and cold front. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Through 06Z Monday...Mostly clear/clear skies early this morning 

will likely allow some shallow radiational fog and low stratus 

to form at KGFL leading to IFR vis/cigs with low stratus and 

MVFR cigs at PSF between 07Z-12Z/Sun. We continued to message 

these in a TEMPO group within that time frame. Otherwise, 

fog/stratus burns off quickly by 12Z/Sun with mostly clear skies

for a short period before diurnally driven cumulus and mid- 

level clouds develop by 15-17Z/Sun with cigs around 5 kft AGL. 

High resolution guidance continues to show isolated to widely 

scattered showers once again developing between 17-22Z/Sun 

reaching mainly KPOU, KPSF and KGFL. KALB looks to miss out on 

these showers and we just used a VCSH. During any shower, MVFR 

vsbys are possible from brief heavy downpours, which we 

continue to message in PROB30 groups. Did not include thunder at

this time with low confidence and isolated nature of 

convection, but will continue to monitor trends.



Winds will be calm to variable in direction at 4 KT or less

prior to 12Z/Sun. Southwest to west winds increase to 5-10 KT 

prior to noon, and become west/northwest at 8-12 KT in the 

afternoon with some gusts 15-20 KT. The winds become light to 

calm by 00Z/Mon. 



Outlook...



Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.

Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.



&&



.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

NY...None.

MA...None.

VT...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...15

AVIATION...31/15