FXUS61 KAKQ 211043 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 643 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe storms has been added for Monday afternoon/evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all marine zones north of the VA-NC border from Monday through part of Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity today. 2) Showers and storms return Monday, with some storms potentially becoming strong to severe. A more summer-like pattern takes hold mid to late-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1....Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity today. Another cool June morning is ongoing across the local area, with temperatures in the 60s inland and lower 70s along the immediate coast. Weak high pressure remains across the area, and light winds prevail across the area. Satellite imagery depicts mostly clear skies across a majority of the area, with some mid-level cloud cover skirting the northern half of the area. Temperatures today will remain near normal, with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s helping keep some of the humidity at bay. The high will gradually shift to the south this evening into tonight as an area of low pressure to our NW approaches the Mid-Atlantic region. A warm front attached to the low will lift through the region tonight and winds will quickly shift to the south. Increasing moisture within the southerly flow is also forecast, with dew points climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Monday morning. Rain will remain out of the forecast today and tonight, returning on Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday, with some storms potentially becoming strong to severe. A more summer-like pattern takes hold mid to late-week next week. Winds will become quite breezy on Monday with the southerly flow expected in the wake of the warm front. Gusts of 20-25 mph (25-30 mph on the Eastern Shore) are forecast during the afternoon outside of any developing afternoon convection. Increasing moisture may lead to more cloud cover than previous days, but temperatures will still rise well into the 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Forecast soundings show increasing instability by early afternoon but also some low level capping, which favors increasing showers and storm potential by mid to late afternoon into the evening as this cap erodes. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather for most of the area Monday and noted that all this environment could be supportive of multiple types of storm modes. Mid-level flow will start to strengthen as the aforementioned low pressure nears the area, so these storms will be moving at a quick clip. While vertical shear is not expected to be overly strong (~20 kts), low level lapse rates will be quite steep due to the very warm surface temperatures, favoring the potential for water- loaded/strong downdrafts. Even though this set-up could potentially produce isolated tornadoes or small hail pending the evolution of any storms that develop, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Additionally, PWAT values will increase to 1.75-2", leading to the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Certainly not expecting widespread flooding issues given very dry antecedent conditions but will need to watch urban and poor drainage areas. Current QPF values for the area range between 0.25" (SE) to ~1" (NW), but localized areas of over an inch are possible in the stronger storms. The shower and storm threat will continue through the evening but should taper off overnight. The front will move through the area on Tuesday, though SE VA and NE NC may still be able to warm up into the upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most guidance is suggesting that there will still be some instability across the area, especially near the coast, to support some shower and thunderstorm development. If the front moves quicker, then these storms will struggle to develop, but have maintained rain chances through Tuesday afternoon for the time being. For the remainder of the week, expect lower precip chances and highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will be generally from the W this morning, quickly becoming SE- S this evening into tonight as a warm front starts to lift across the area. FEW-SCT high levels clouds are forecast through tomorrow morning. Outlook: Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late Monday through Tuesday. Typical summertime pattern next week with mostly VFR conditions, but can't rule out afternoon/evening tstms. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions are expected today through most of tonight. - Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with SCA conditions likely. SCAs have been issued for all marine zones north of the VA-NC border from Mon through part of Mon night. Weak surface high pressure is centered just to the southeast of the waters this morning with SW winds around 10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Benign marine conditions are expected today with sea breezes as the high remains nearby. The high slides offshore tonight into Monday as low pressure tracks from the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Great Lakes. This low continues northeast into New England through Monday night, dragging a warm front north across the local waters. Winds become southerly at 15-20 kt on the rivers, and 20-25 kt across part of the bay and the offshore waters north of the VA-NC border (with gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front on Monday. Winds will be a few knots less across the NC waters. Wind speeds will peak late Monday afternoon into the early evening before leveling off or diminishing slightly into Tuesday morning. As a result, have issued SCAs for all marine zones north of the VA-NC border from late Mon AM/Mon aftn through Mon night. Seas will build to 3-4 ft south/4-6 ft north nearshore, and 5-7 ft across the 20-60 nm offshore zones. Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, which will likely necessitate SMWs. As the low tracks to our north, a weak cold front will cross the waters Monday night. Behind the front, N-NW winds could gust to 20 kt on the bay during the day on Tuesday, with a low potential for SCAs if things trend upward. Local wind probabilities show a ~10% chc of sustained 18 kt winds across the bay on Tuesday. Improving marine conditions are expected Tuesday night through midweek as high pressure returns. A low rip current risk remains in place today across all area beaches. The rip current risk increases to high across the northern beaches on Mon and moderate across VA Beach and Eastern Currituck. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637-639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. && $$ DISCUSSION...RHR/NB AVIATION...SW/NB MARINE...ERI/MAM